996
FXUS62 KCHS 011842
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
242 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND A NEW KEY MESSAGE FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS ADDED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.
- 2) PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH SOME
DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
- 3) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS THE BROAD UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA. BASED OFF 12Z
SOUNDING DATA, THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS NOT QUITE BUILT OVER
THE AREA BUT IT HAS SHOW UP OVER INTERIOR PART OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND GEORGIA. HOWEVER, THE PROFILE EVEN TODAY REMAINS RATHER DRY
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS EASTWARD. AS
A RESULT, THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS LET
ALONG RAIN TOMORROW.
THURSDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY: HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BECOME CENTERED
OVER THE CAROLINAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A
FAIRLY HOT, DRY AND SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE WITH A
PROGRESSIVE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE LIKELY TO OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN ALONG SOUTHWEST FLANKS
OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE TO ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. HOWEVER, MUCH
WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHERE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH
BECOMES SITUATED. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO BROAD
TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA AND POSSIBLY DROPS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH SHOWER AND STORMS
FOCUSED ALONG THIS ADVANCING BOUNDARY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
WITH SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER NIGHT OF
POTENTIAL LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP. GIVEN THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS FOG AND SOME GUIDANCE SUPPORTING AT LEAST PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 WE WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD BE DENSE; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN FOG LET ALONE
DENSE FOG IS TOO LOW TO SUPPORT THE NEED FOR A PRODUCT AT THIS
TIME. IF CONFIDENCE FOR DENSE FOG INCREASES THIS EVENING, THEN A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OR ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 3: HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
ALOFT, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST REGIONS TODAY, MARKING THE BEGINNING OF A
WARMING TREND MID TO LATE WEEK. TODAY, THE REGION WILL START TO
SLIDE UNDER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. ON WEDNESDAY, THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WHILE WEAK H5 VORT ENERGY SHIFTS
ONSHORE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN SIMILAR HEAT/HUMIDITY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP AND CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS MID-WEEK.
HEADING INTO LATE WEEK, A NOTABLE INCREASE IN RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT,
SUPPORTING WARMER TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 90S FRIDAY, THEN MID 90S
SATURDAY. THESE TEMPS IN COMBINATION WITH MID-UPPER 70 DEWPTS COULD
SUPPORT HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL CORRIDOR THIS
WEEKEND (HIGHEST CHANCE SATURDAY), BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
01/18Z TAFS:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
02/09Z. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT WITH YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z AT ALL TERMINALS. IFR TO LIFR VSBYS AND
CIGS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE TAF WITH THIS CYCLE AND IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES TEMPORARY REDUCTION TO VLIFR COULD BE ADDED
WITH FUTURE UPDATES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER 14Z TO
THE ENTIRE AREA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING BRIEF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO THE SAV TERMINAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GREATER
CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE TO
ALL TERMINALS SATURDAY WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: THERE ARE NO CONCERNS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
BACK MORE EASTERLY AT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE
FORMS AND MOVES INLAND. EAST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AGAIN NEAR THE BEACHES LATE. WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.
SOME PATCHY MARINE FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS AND
CHARLESTON HARBOR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NORTH/OFFSHORE AND WEAK
COASTAL TROUGHING POSITIONED CLOSER THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SUPPORT
CONDITIONS WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK,
ALTHOUGH INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS
GEORGIA WATERS ON THURSDAY. OUTSIDE THIS ACTIVITY, ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD PEAK BETWEEN 10-15 KT DAILY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS WHILE SEAS RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND, BUT THERE
SHOULD BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS (15-20 KT) AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES, THEN SHIFTS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN BETWEEN 1-3
FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODEST EAST-NORTHEAST WIND ALONG WITH LONG PERIOD
SWELLS OF 2.5 FT EVERY 12 SECONDS SUPPORTS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG GEORGIA BEACHES WEDNESDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
BLACK/DPB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page