382
FXUS62 KCHS 012315
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
715 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.
- 2) PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH SOME
DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
- 3) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS THE BROAD UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA. BASED OFF 12Z
SOUNDING DATA, THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS NOT QUITE BUILT OVER
THE AREA BUT IT HAS SHOW UP OVER INTERIOR PART OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. HOWEVER, THE PROFILE EVEN TODAY REMAINS
RATHER DRY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS
EASTWARD. AS A RESULT, THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS LET ALONG RAIN TOMORROW.
THURSDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY: HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP A FAIRLY HOT, DRY AND SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE WITH A
PROGRESSIVE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE LIKELY TO OCCUR EACH
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN ALONG
SOUTHWEST FLANKS OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL
OFFSHORE TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. HOWEVER, MUCH WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHERE
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES SITUATED. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE OVER THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO BROAD TROUGHING DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA AND POSSIBLY DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WITH SHOWER AND STORMS FOCUSED ALONG THIS ADVANCING
BOUNDARY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
WITH SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND SUFFICIENT
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER NIGHT OF
POTENTIAL LOW STRATUS AND FOG. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE A BIT
MIXED WITH FOG COVERAGE AND DENSITY BUT WITH VERY LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE, THE FORECAST IS A BIT OF PERSISTENCE GIVEN THE
STRATUS BUILD DOWN WE SAW THIS MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS COULD
EVEN SEE A SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF DENSE FOG. WE COULD EVENTUALLY
NEED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OR EVEN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
ALOFT, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST REGIONS TODAY, MARKING THE BEGINNING
OF A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE WEEK. TODAY, THE REGION WILL
START TO SLIDE UNDER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S,
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. ON
WEDNESDAY, THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA WHILE WEAK H5 VORT ENERGY SHIFTS ONSHORE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WHICH SHOULD
MAINTAIN SIMILAR HEAT/HUMIDITY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CHANCES OF PRECIP AND CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS MID-WEEK.
HEADING INTO LATE WEEK, A NOTABLE INCREASE IN RIDGING OCCURS
ALOFT, SUPPORTING WARMER TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 90S FRIDAY, THEN
MID 90S SATURDAY. THESE TEMPS IN COMBINATION WITH MID-UPPER 70
DEWPTS COULD SUPPORT HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR THIS WEEKEND (HIGHEST CHANCE SATURDAY), BEFORE A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS, KJZI, AND
KSAV. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AGAIN REVOLVES AROUND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS A BIT MIXED WITH THE POTENTIAL COVERAGE AND DENSITY
OF FOG. BUT GIVEN THAT WE SAW A FEW HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING, IT SEEMS LIKELY WE WILL SEE SOMEWHAT OF A REPEAT GIVEN
THAT THE AIRMASS HASN'T REALLY CHANGED. WE HAVE MAINTAINED IFR
CONDITIONS ROUGHLY IN THE 10-14Z TIME PERIOD. DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE, AND COULD NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE TAF'S WITH FUTURE
ISSUANCES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO THE SAV TERMINAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. GREATER CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE TO ALL TERMINALS SATURDAY WITH A
PASSING COLD FRONT.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK MORE EASTERLY AT THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE FORMS AND MOVES INLAND.
EAST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE NORTHEAST
AGAIN NEAR THE BEACHES LATE. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. SOME PATCHY MARINE
FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS AND CHARLESTON HARBOR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NORTH/OFFSHORE AND WEAK
COASTAL TROUGHING POSITIONED CLOSER THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
SUPPORT CONDITIONS WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH MID WEEK, ALTHOUGH INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS GEORGIA WATERS ON THURSDAY. OUTSIDE THIS
ACTIVITY, ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PEAK BETWEEN 10-15 KT DAILY WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WHILE SEAS RANGE BETWEEN 2-4
FT. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THIS WEEKEND, BUT THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS
(15-20 KT) AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES, THEN SHIFTS ACROSS LOCAL
WATERS. SEAS REMAIN BETWEEN 1-3 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODEST EAST-NORTHEAST WIND ALONG WITH LONG
PERIOD SWELLS OF 2.5 FT EVERY 12 SECONDS SUPPORTS A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG GEORGIA BEACHES WEDNESDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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