838
FXUS62 KCHS 030013
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
813 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
FORECAST THINKING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.
- 2) BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH LABOR DAY.
- 3) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS APPEARS LIKELY AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS CONDITIONS REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE POINTS TO SINGLE DIGIT CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICIT VALUES AS WELL AS PROBABILITIES FOR VISIBILITY <0.5MI AS
HIGH AS 60% ACCORDING TO THE 12Z HREF. THE BEST CHANCES FOR DENSE
FOG APPEAR TO BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 17.
KEY MESSAGE 2: BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH LABOR DAY.
TODAY: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL LEAD TO
PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PWATS ONLY AROUND 1.8-1.9 INCHES. WHILE A FEW
SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL LIKELY
DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES, BUT JUST TO THE SOUTH A
PLUME OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD
APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN GA. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GEFS SHOW SOME
DEGREE OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY ACROSS SE GA. HOWEVER, IF THE
RIDGING HOLDS STRONGER OR THE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE STAYS
FURTHER SOUTH LOCATIONS WOULD REMAIN DRY. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY
BE DRY AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LABOR DAY: A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG CYCLONE TAKES SHAPE OFFSHORE OF NEW
ENGLAND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH
LABOR DAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT THE COAST AS A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO GEORGIA.
DRIER CONDITIONS COULD RETURN BY TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
ALOFT, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST REGIONS, WITH THE LOCAL AREA UNDER ITS
EASTERN PERIPHERY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOW-MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S, AND THE LOCAL AREA
SHOULD EXPERIENCE SIMILAR RESULTS ON THURSDAY AS WELL WHILE WEAK H5
VORT ENERGY AND COASTAL TROUGHING EVENTUALLY SHIFT ONSHORE PRIOR TO
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, A NOTABLE
INCREASE IN RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PEAK IN THE
LOWER 90S FRIDAY WHILE SFC DEWPTS SURGE INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S.
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO FALL JUST SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO
START OFF THE WEEKEND, BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER SFC TEMPS (MID 90S) AND
HIGHER DEWPTS (UPPER 70S) COULD LEAD TO HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR SATURDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THERE IS A THREAT OF FOG DEVELOPING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME RESTRICTIONS TO THE TERMINALS. GUIDANCE
HAS THE HIGHEST FOG PROBABILITIES ACROSS FAR INTERIOR COUNTIES,
INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER, FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY KCHS/KSAV. HAVE MAINTAINED BR STARTING AT
8/9Z AT CHS/SAV/JZI, THOUGH PREDICTABILITY OF TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF FOG REMAINS LOW. ONCE FOG DISSIPATES THURSDAY
MORNING VFR WILL PREVAIL AGAIN.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING BRIEF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO THE SAV TERMINAL THURSDAY. GREATER CHANCES
FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE TO ALL
TERMINALS THIS WEEKEND PRIOR TO AND DURING A PASSING COLD FRONT.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT
OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT, MAINLY IN EAST/SOUTHEAST SWELL WITH
11-13 SEC PERIODS.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NORTH/OFFSHORE AND WEAK
COASTAL TROUGHING BECOMING POSITIONED CLOSER THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WILL SUPPORT MARINE CONDITIONS WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS INTO LATE WEEK, ALTHOUGH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
RETURN ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF LOCAL WATERS BY THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. IN GENERAL, ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PEAK BETWEEN 10-15 KT DAILY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH GREATEST ENHANCEMENT ALONG COASTAL AREAS
DURING AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SEAS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN
2-4 FT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
RESULTING IN A SLIGHT UPTICK OF WINDS (15-20 KT) AND BUILDING SEAS
(3-4 FT) INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOULD TRENDS CONTINUE, THERE IS A
RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEING NEEDED POST FROPA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY WITH MODEST
ONSHORE FLOW AND 2-3 FT SWELLS EVERY 9-11 SECONDS. SHOULD LONG
PERIOD SWELL LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED, A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS COULD CONTINUE EARLY WEEKEND ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CEB/CPM/DPB
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