841
FXUS62 KCHS 030552
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
152 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL KEY MESSAGES AND SECTIONS WERE UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
- 2) RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO LABOR DAY.
- 3) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEGREE OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOWEST 1000 HPA CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE STILL CENTERED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
THIS IS LIKELY WHERE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR FOG WILL OCCUR
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE VARIOUS 03/00Z STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
PACKAGES ARE NOT OVERLY AGGRESSIVE ON THE FOG POTENTIAL, BUT
THE HREF STILL PAINTS ~20-40% CHANCE FOR VSBYS DROPPING TO LESS
THAN 1/2 MILE. VISIBILITIES WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED HEADING
INTO AND THROUGHOUT THE MORNING RUSH HOUR AND A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT AND/OR DENSE FOG ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED AT SOME
POINT PENDING TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
LABOR DAY.
TODAY: THE EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT HAS BEEN
INFLUENCING THE AREA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL NUDGE EVER
SO SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST TODAY WHICH KEEP THE DRY AND
BROADLY SUBSIDENT PATTERN IN PLACE. EARLY MORNING WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW (850-700 HPA) AND ASSOCIATED SHEAR
AXIS EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE OF CAPE CANAVERAL ACROSS FLORIDA
AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MEANDER
NORTH WITH PRONOUNCED SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POISED TO PUSH
INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST
LATER TODAY. THE MOISTURE PLUME LOOKS TO QUICKLY ENCOUNTER
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
HIGH AS IT APPROACHES THE MIDDLE/UPPER GEORGIA COAST WHERE LOW
850 HPA THETA-E VALUES AND UNFAVORABLE K-INDICES ARE NOTED. THE
END RESULT WILL LIKELY BE AN AREA OF ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN A TSTM OR TWO BRUSHING PARTS OF
LONG, LIBERTY AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES LATER IN THE DAY. SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS FROM THIS ACTIVITY ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
MOISTURE PROFILES IN PLACE.
FRIDAY: THE BIMODAL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLES YESTERDAY MORNING APPEAR TO HAVE IMPROVED. THE 03/00Z
GFS AND MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED A BIT WETTER AND
BETTER MATCHES TRENDS NOTED IN THE EUROPEAN. THE MAIN DRIVING
FORCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE A WEAKENING AND RETROGRESSION OF
THE STRONG UPPER HIGH TO THE NORTH AND A MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHEAR AXIS AND ITS ASSOCIATED BAND OF
VORTICITY IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA INTO
NORTHEAST FLORIDA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME GRADUALLY EXPANDING NORTH INTO
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY.
THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A REGION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OCCURRING OVER
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. IT IS NOT EXACTLY CLEAR RIGHT NOW
HOW FAR NORTH CONVECTION WILL REACH AS MUCH OF THE CHARLESTON
TRI-COUNTY AND POSSIBLY COLLETON COUNTY COULD STILL BE
INFLUENCED BY THE WEAKENING UPPER HIGH.
SATURDAY INTO LABOR DAY: SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING THE LEAST
ACTIVE OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES POISED
TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT THE FRONT
COULD BRIEFLY STALL OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE, BUT SHOULD THEN QUICKLY PUSH
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO LABOR DAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
GEORGIA. DESPITE THE FRONT BEING DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTH,
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO LABOR DAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS, IT COULD BE BREEZY AT THE
COAST GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A PINCHED GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE INLAND WEDGE.
KEY MESSAGE 3: HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AS THE CENTER OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, THE SUBSIDENCE
PROVIDED BY THE RIDGE ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES NEAR 19
DEGREES C WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG
THE COAST AND UP INTO THE MID 90S FOR INLAND AREAS. HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 100-105 DEGREES F ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. FOR
FRIDAY, ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE, THUS LIMITING HEATING INTO THE MID 80S
ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 90S. HOWEVER, DUE TO AN INCREASE IN
DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 70S, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN IN
THE 100-105 DEGREE F RANGE.
WHILE THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS
ALONG THE EAST COAST, SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE
HOTTEST DAY. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING COMBINED WITH H850 TEMPERATURES NEAR 20 DEG C ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER
90S ALONG THE COAST AND UP INTO THE MID 90S FOR INLAND AREAS.
WILL NEED TO WATCH TO SEE WHERE THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS END UP, AS
AREAS THAT SEE DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S WILL LIKELY
SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES RISE INTO THE 108- 112 DEGREE F RANGE,
WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A HEAT ADVISORY. CURRENTLY, HIGHEST
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA, WITH LOWER VALUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 103-108 ARE STILL EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT LOOKS
TO PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY, BRINGING AN END TO THIS STRETCH OF
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS, THOUGH PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WILL LIKELY STILL REACH UP INTO THE MID 90S BEFORE THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE RAIN, MONDAY'S HIGHS
LOOKS TO STAY IN THE 80S.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
03/06Z TAFS:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
FOG/STRATUS IMPACTS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
NEAR TERM GUIDANCE IS NOT OVERLY AGGRESSIVE IN LOWER VSBYS OR
EVEN IFR OR LIFR CIGS, BUT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SOME DEGREE OF FOG AND STRATUS FORMATION. VFR CONDITIONS
WERE MOSTLY MAINTAINED FOR NOW WITH VSBYS LIMITED TO 5-6SM WITH
SCATTERED CLOUD BASES AROUND 400 FT. A TEMPO GROUP FOR VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CIGS WERE INTRODUCED AT KSAV 10-12Z GIVEN
THERE IS A BIT MORE AGREEMENT IN A THICKER BAND OF STRATUS
IMPACTING THAT TERMINAL. ONCE LOW CLOUDS/FOG MIX OUT, VFR WILL
PREVAIL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DURING THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY. REGIONAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: THERE ARE NO CONCERNS. ONSHORE WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT WILL PREVAIL.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: IN GENERAL, ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PEAK
BETWEEN 10-15 KT DAILY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH GREATEST
ENHANCEMENT ALONG COASTAL AREAS DURING AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS. FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH ANOTHER ROUND POSSIBLE
SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN ARRIVE SUNDAY
MORNING AND PUSH SOUTHWARDS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, RESULTING IN
A SLIGHT UPTICK OF EASTERLY WINDS (15- 20 KT) AND BUILDING SEAS
(3-4 FT) INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO
INCREASE ON MONDAY POST FROPA, BRINGING THE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.
RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM
BEAUFORT COUNTY EXTENDING SOUTHWARDS INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA,
WITH 3-4 FT SEAS EVERY 10-11 SECONDS.
COASTAL FLOODING: ELEVATED HIGH TIDES RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
DURING THE LUNAR PERIGEE (9/6), AND LINGER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
UNTIL AFTER THE NEW MOON (9/11). WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES
RANGING FROM 6.3 TO 6.55 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 0.45 TO 0.7 FT WOULD
RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE MAY SET
UP ALONG THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING THE TIDAL DEPARTURES LEADING TO COASTAL FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTIES. FOR
THE REST OF THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
COASTLINE, TIDAL DEPARTURES WOULD NEED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 1
FOOT, SO COASTAL FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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