384
FXUS62 KCHS 041053
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
653 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE 1 WAS UPDATED. THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED FOR
THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND,
WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN EACH DAY. INCREASED RISK FOR
FLOODING SUNDAY.
- 2) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR
DAY WEEKEND, WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN EACH DAY. INCREASED
RISK FOR FLOODING SUNDAY.
TODAY: EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE RESIDING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A PLUME OF DEEPER LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD WHILE WEAK MID-LVL ENERGY SHIFTS
INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE LINGERING MID-LVL RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION,
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE, DAYTIME INSTABILITY, AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. COVERAGE WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS ACROSS THE SOUTH
CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY WHERE NOTABLY DRIER AIR REMAINS THANKS TO
THE PLACEMENT OF THE MID-LVL RIDGE.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY COULD REMAIN DRY. MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH, WITH THE
FRONT REACHING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD INCREASE CONSIDERABLY ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS, PROVIDING MORE FORCING
FOR ASCENT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE
SEA BREEZE AND PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE PREVALENT WITH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
CONVECTION GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS NORTHERN FLORIDA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SUNDAY LOOK TO FALL INTO THE 1-3" RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THIS COULD LEAD TO AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING WITH POCKETS
OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE CORRIDOR OF GREATEST COVERAGE
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE EVENTUAL
FRONTAL POSITION. IT'S POSSIBLE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD
CONTINUE INTO LABOR DAY, DESPITE THE FRONT BEING DISPLACED WELL
TO THE SOUTH OF REGION. IN ADDITION, IT COULD BE QUITE BREEZY
ACROSS THE COASTLINE GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A PINCHED PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INLAND WEDGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WHILE THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS
ALONG THE EAST COAST, SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE
HOTTEST DAY. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING COMBINED WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES 20-22C ARE EXPECTED
TO PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S INLAND
JUST INLAND FROM THE BEACHES AND UP INTO THE MID 90S FOR INLAND
AREAS. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY MIX OUT TO SOME DEGREE DURING PEAK
HEATING, BUT LOOK TO POOL INTO THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CORRIDOR ALONG/BEHIND THE RESULTANT SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION. THIS COULD PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE
108-112 RANGE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST WITH 103-108 ELSEWHERE. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY VERY
WELL BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF BERKELEY COUNTY
SOUTH INTO BEAUFORT AND JASPER COUNTIES, INCLUDING PARTS OF THE
CHARLESTON METRO AREA. IT LOOKS A BIT MORE MARGINAL FOR PARTS
OF THE GEORGIA COAST AT THIS TIME, INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH METRO
AREA. CURRENT DATA SUGGEST CONVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY
EVENING, BUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD STILL PROVIDE SOME
POCKETS OF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. CONVECTION WITH THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS FOR SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
04/12Z TAFS:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE 12Z TAF CYCLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS THIS WEEKEND PRIOR TO
AND DURING A PASSING COLD FRONT. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ARE MORE LIKELY SUNDAY/MONDAY NEAR AND BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT GIVEN GREATER COVERAGE OF RAINFALL. BREEZY CONDITIONS
COULD ALSO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS AS A WEDGE TAKES SHAPE.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: THERE ARE NO CONCERNS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL VEER MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE MAIN CONCERN CENTERS ON A LIKELY
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH AS
20-25 KT TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS AND 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS THE GEORGIA
WATERS AS WELL AS THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS COULD REACH AS
HIGH AS 3-5 FT, BUT COULD END UP AS HIGH AS 6 FT AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH SANTEE-EDISTO BEACH NEARSHORE AND
OFFSHORE LEGS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR SOME
WATERS FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO
TUESDAY.
COASTAL FLOODING: ELEVATED HIGH TIDES RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
DURING THE LUNAR PERIGEE (09/06), AND LINGER THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK UNTIL AFTER THE NEW MOON (09/11). WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
TIDES RANGING FROM 6.30-6.55 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 0.45-0.70 FT WOULD
RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE MAY SET
UP ALONG THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING THE TIDAL DEPARTURES LEADING TO COASTAL FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTS OF CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTIES.
FOR THE REST OF THE COAST FROM BEAUFORT COUNTY, SC, SOUTH TO
MCINTOSH COUNTY, GA, TIDAL DEPARTURES WOULD NEED TO BE IN
EXCESS OF 1 FT, SO COASTAL FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME. SHOULD THE GRADIENT PINCH A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED WITH
THE INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE, THEN THE RISK FOR FLOODING COULD
INCREASE.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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