065
FXUS62 KCHS 141038
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
638 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
- 2) COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
RISING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES LATE THIS WEEK.
- 3) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH THE TUESDAY MIDDAY
HIGH TIDE ALONG THE CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTY COASTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF A 594 DM RIDGE WILL
SETTLE OVER NORTHERN AL THIS AFTERNOON, RIDGING EAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT VERY MILD LLVL THICKNESSES
ACROSS SE GA/SC. AT THE SFC, THE CENTER OF A LARGE 1025 MB HIGH WILL
SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT LIGHT NW
WINDS THIS MORNING, AIDING IN PINNING THE SEA BREEZE UNTIL THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VERY WARM LLVL THICKNESSES, STRONG
INSOLATION, AND LATER SEA BREEZE SHOULD FAVOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES A KCHS AND KSAV COULD
BE TIED OR BROKEN, SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY RISING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES LATE THIS WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF OUR WATERS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, AND QUICKLY MOVING AWAY. AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH, THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND CAMS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION,
BUT DISAGREE ON THE COVERAGE. GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP, THE
ANTICIPATION IS A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM LATE IN THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-
16. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND OUT OF OUR AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THEN, THE HIGH WILL
PERSIST TO OUR NORTH THROUGH MIDWEEK, BRINGING OUR AREA DRY
CONDITIONS.
BUT THE MOST NOTEWORTHY THING FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURES. NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER "COOLER"
TEMPERATURES INTO OUR AREA. THEY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE "COOLER" OF THE TWO DAYS. AS THE
HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARDS. THIS UPWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH THE TUESDAY
MIDDAY HIGH TIDE ALONG THE CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTY COASTS.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE TUESDAY MIDDAY HIGH TIDE
ALONG THE CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTY COASTS. STRENGTHENING
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, WHICH WILL INCREASE TIDAL
DEPARTURES. THE TIDE WOULD NEED ~1 FT DEPARTURE TO REACH MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS OF 7 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.
MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS COULD BE ACHIEVED, WITH TIDE LEVELS
POSSIBLY RISING TO THE 7.0-7.2 FT MLLW RANGE. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED. NO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH ALONG
THE LOWER SC AND SOUTHEAST GA COASTS.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
12Z TAFS: VFR WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EARLY, THEN TURNING FROM
THE NW BY 14Z. A WEAK SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON, TURNING WINDS FROM THE SSE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.
MARINE
TODAY: THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT SOUTHEAST WINDS
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FT.
TONIGHT: A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE ACROSS THE MARINE
ZONES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
TONIGHT, RESULTING IN GUSTY NE WINDS TO DEVELOP AFTER 6Z. GUSTS
ACROSS THE SC WATERS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW 25 KTS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WAVES SHOULD STEADILY BUILD THROUGH THE NIGHT,
REACHING 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE AND OUTER SC WATERS BEFORE
12Z.
EXTENDED MARINE: A COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF OUR WATERS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, AND QUICKLY MOVING AWAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH, AND IT'S EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THERE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL CAUSE NE WINDS TO QUICKLY
INCREASE TO A STRONG BREEZE ON TUESDAY. GUSTS COULD EVEN REACH NEAR
GALE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR WATERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR GA WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD EASE SOME TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING AGAIN TO ABOUT THE SAME STRENGTH ON WEDNESDAY. THE SAME
WIND DECREASE OCCURS AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE
ON THURSDAY, LIMITING THE INCREASE IN WINDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS
SHOULD EASE MORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LIKEWISE, WIND-DRIVEN
SEAS WILL BE ELEVATED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR ALL OF OUR WATERS TUESDAY MORNING.
THESE ADVISORIES COULD REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SOME OF OUR MARINE ZONES
THROUGH THURSDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND ELEVATED
SEAS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS. ON TUESDAY THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR OUR SC BEACHES AND
A HIGH RISK FOR OUR GA BEACHES.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 14:
KCHS: 94/1991
KCXM: 94/1938
KSAV: 96/1991
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 14:
KSAV: 77/1979
SEPTEMBER 20:
KCHS: 76/1954
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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