944
FXUS62 KCHS 151808
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
208 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE COASTAL FLOODING KEY MESSAGE WAS DROPPED. OTHER KEY MESSAGES
AND SECTIONS WERE UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE GEORGIA
BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- 2) NOT AS HOT THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE
GEORGIA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS AFTERNOON: THE TYBEE LIFEGUARD GROUP HAS REPORTED NUMEROUS
RIP CURRENTS TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
NUMEROUS STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN THE HIGH CATEGORY FOR THE
GEORGIA BEACHES WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA
BEACHES.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WITH ELEVATED SEAS INTO MID-WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LOCATION OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA COASTLINE, THUS WE HAVE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR
THE GEORGIA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES FOR THE SAME
TIMEFRAME. BEACHGOERS SHOULD SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD AND HEED
LOCAL BEACH PATROL GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: NOT AS HOT THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: NEARLY A 600DM RIDGE WILL REMAIN
CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY, BEFORE SLIDING OFF
MORE TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THIS MAINTAIN THE LATE-SUMMER CAD
AND YIELD DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH COOLER LOW-LVL
THICKNESSES. EXPECT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS TO DIP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S WITH LOW 70S ALONG THE COASTLINE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WITH A COUPLE POCKETS OF LOW 90S ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS STABLE ENOUGH TO BE
RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: AS THIS AFOREMENTIONED HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TREND UPWARDS ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOME MODELS HAVE INDICATING THAT A CLOSED H5 LOW WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY NIGHT, AND THEN TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
ADVECT RICH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND YIELD SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (ESP. ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE).
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
15/18Z TAFS:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER AT ALL THREE TERMINALS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20
KT. A RISK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER AROUND KSAV THROUGH
ABOUT 21Z OR SO. VCSH 18-21Z WAS MAINTAINED. NO CONCERNS FOR
SHOWERS AT KCHS OR KJZI. PESKY BKN DECK 2500-3000 FT AT KSAV AND
KJZI WILL FINALLY SCOUR OUT PRIOR TO ISSUANCE TIME. VFR WILL
THEN PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH 16/18Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE
CHANCE OF BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE) ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
TONIGHT: NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE STEADILY INCREASED ACROSS THE
WATERS AND CHARLESTON HARBOR TODAY AND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS ARE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE IN LOWERING
WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT, BUT AS INLAND AREAS COOL AND WINDS BACK
SUSPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT PINCHED;
LIKELY HIGHER THAN WHAT IS SUGGESTS. OPTED FOR THE HIGHER SIDE
OF THE WIND GUIDANCE GIVEN THIS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 20-25 KT IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SEAS
4-7 FT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ALL
NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS (ADVISORIES ARE
STILL NOT BEING ISSUED FOR THE TWO SOUTH CAROLINA OFFSHORE
ZONES PER POLICY CONSTRAINTS). IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR, WINDS
SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY EARLY
EVENING, ALTHOUGH THEY COULD REMAIN NEAR 20 KT CLOSER TO THE
HARBOR ENTRANCE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WAVES AROUND 2 FT CAN BE
EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO WEDGE ITSELF INTO THE REGION, EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS TO REMAIN QUITE BREEZY WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15-20 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ACROSS ALL THE MARINE ZONES ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE SEAS TO SURGE
TO 4-6 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 5-7 FT IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS, BEFORE DECREASING TO 3-5 FT THURSDAY MORNING. THUS,
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, EXPECT WINDS TO STILL MAINTAIN BREEZINESS WITH
SPEEDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS ON THURSDAY. MORE
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS WINDS FALL TO AROUND 5-10 KT AND SEAS CONTINUE TO
LOWER. MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST
BEFORE HEADING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW THIS CLOSED H5 LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE
OF THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR GAZ217-219-
239-241.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ360-362-
364-384.
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