962
FXUS62 KCHS 152238
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
638 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO KEY MESSAGE 1 AND THE MARINE SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GEORGIA
BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- 2) NOT AS HOT THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
GEORGIA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH ELEVATED
SEAS INTO MID-WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THE LOCATION OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTLINE, THUS WE HAVE A HIGH RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GEORGIA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE
SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME.
KEY MESSAGE 2: NOT AS HOT THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: NEARLY A 600DM RIDGE WILL REMAIN
CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY, BEFORE SLIDING OFF
MORE TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THIS MAINTAIN THE LATE-SUMMER CAD
AND YIELD DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH COOLER LOW-LVL
THICKNESSES. EXPECT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS TO DIP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S WITH LOW 70S ALONG THE COASTLINE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WITH A COUPLE POCKETS OF LOW 90S ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS STABLE ENOUGH TO BE
RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: AS THIS AFOREMENTIONED HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TREND UPWARDS ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOME MODELS HAVE INDICATING THAT A CLOSED H5 LOW WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY NIGHT, AND THEN TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
ADVECT RICH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND YIELD SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (ESP. ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE).
AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
15/18Z TAFS:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER AT ALL THREE TERMINALS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20
KT. A RISK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER AROUND KSAV THROUGH
ABOUT 21Z OR SO. VCSH 18-21Z WAS MAINTAINED. NO CONCERNS FOR
SHOWERS AT KCHS OR KJZI. PESKY BKN DECK 2500-3000 FT AT KSAV AND
KJZI WILL FINALLY SCOUR OUT PRIOR TO ISSUANCE TIME. VFR WILL
THEN PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH 16/18Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE
CHANCE OF BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE) ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO EARLY EVENING. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE IN LOWERING NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT, BUT AS
INLAND AREAS COOL AND WINDS BACK SUSPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT PINCHED; LIKELY HIGHER THAN WHAT IS
SUGGESTS. OPTED FOR THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE WIND GUIDANCE GIVEN
THIS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20-25 KT IN PLACE
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SEAS 4-7 FT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS. IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR, WINDS SHOULD DROP
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY EARLY EVENING, ALTHOUGH
THEY COULD REMAIN NEAR 20 KT CLOSER TO THE HARBOR ENTRANCE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WAVES AROUND 2 FT CAN BE EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO WEDGE ITSELF INTO THE REGION, EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS TO REMAIN QUITE BREEZY WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15-20 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ACROSS ALL THE MARINE ZONES ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE SEAS TO SURGE
TO 4-6 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 5-7 FT IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS, BEFORE DECREASING TO 3-5 FT THURSDAY MORNING. THUS,
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, EXPECT WINDS TO STILL MAINTAIN BREEZINESS WITH
SPEEDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS ON THURSDAY. MORE
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS WINDS FALL TO AROUND 5-10 KT AND SEAS CONTINUE TO
LOWER. MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST
BEFORE HEADING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW THIS CLOSED H5 LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE
OF THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR GAZ217-219-
239-241.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ360-362-
364-384.
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