108
FXUS62 KCHS 161053
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
653 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE GEORGIA
BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- 2) SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE GEORGIA
BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND AN ELEVATED EAST
NORTHEAST SWELL HAS INCREASED THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE ALONG OUR GA COAST. THIS IS
WHERE THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ALONG OUR SC COAST, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF A LARGE 600 DM RIDGE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY, DRIFTING OVER THE
ARKLATEX BY FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, CENTERED AT H75. THE
INVERSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN. GIVEN THE CAPPING INVERSION AND STEADY ENE SFC WINDS,
THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. COOLER LLVL
THICKNESSES WITHIN THE WEDGED SFC HIGH SHOULD LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 TODAY AND TOMORROW. ON
FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A DEGREE OR TWO, WITH MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FORECAST TO SEE LOW 90S.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ALONG WITH THEIR AI COUNTERPARTS INDICATES THAT A
CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY, TRACKING SW OVER FL BY FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
BETWEEN THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AND FL. A PLUME OF MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WEEKEND. WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTION ACTIVITY
THIS WEEKEND, FOCUSED ALONG SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
12Z TAFS: VFR. A SFC RIDGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
TERMINAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST, SPEEDS AROUND 5 KTS DURING THE NIGHT,
STRENGTHENING TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AFTER 14Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE CHANCE
OF BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE) THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE FAIRLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY, RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: AN AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED TO OUR
NORTH. AN ELEVATED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR WATERS IS
BRINGING A STRONG NORTHEAST BREEZE AND ELEVATED WIND-DRIVEN SEAS.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY, WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG OUR GA COAST. THE GRADIENT LOWERS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, CAUSING WINDS AND SEAS TO TREND LOWER. AS A RESULT, THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD EXPIRE FOR OUR SC WATERS THIS EVENING,
THEN OUR GA WATERS OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND: HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PERSIST TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY
WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ217-219-239-
241.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ360-
362.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ364-384.
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