982
FXUS62 KCHS 161813
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
213 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE GEORGIA
BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- 2) SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE
GEORGIA BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH ELEVATED
SEAS CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
HIGHEST WAVE HEIGHTS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
COASTLINE. THEREFORE, WE HAVE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR
THE GEORGIA BEACHES THROUGH 8PM EDT. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES FOR THE SAME
TIMEFRAME. BEACHGOERS SHOULD SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD AND HEED
LOCAL BEACH PATROL GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A NEARLY 600 DM RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN
CONTROL OF THE FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, BEFORE SLIDING
OVER TO THE ARKLATEX ON FRIDAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS TO
DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH LOW 70S ALONG THE COASTLINE.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH A COUPLE POCKETS OF LOW 90S
ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. HOWEVER, AS WE CHANGE OVER TO
FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM UP, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S. SOME MODELS HAVE INDICATING THAT A CLOSED H5 LOW
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY NIGHT, AND
THEN TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, A
RAIN-FREE FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH FRIDAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: AS THIS H5 CLOSED LOW MEANDERS INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND, IT'LL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT PWATS TO RANGE FROM 1.75
TO 2.0 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE REGION AND WILL YIELD ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
THE SEA BREEZE SHIFTS INLAND.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
18Z TAFS: VFR. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS BETWEEN 16/18Z AND 17/00Z. AFTERWARDS,
EXPECT WINDS TO WANE AFTER SUNSET WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KTS THROUGH
17/18Z. IT'LL REMAIN RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN-
FREE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE FORECAST, STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY
ACROSS THE WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE LOCATED ALONG
THE GEORGIA COASTLINE WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15-20 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. THIS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIVE SEAS TO SURGE TO 4-6 FT THROUGH THE EVENING. HEADING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN AND ALLOW THE
WINDS AND SEAS TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD EXPIRE FOR THE NEARSHORE SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS THIS EVENING, THEN FOR THE GEORGIA WATERS
OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BE APPARENT OVER THE REGION, EXPECT WINDS TO STILL MAINTAIN
SOME BREEZINESS WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 18-20 KTS
ON THURSDAY. MORE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WINDS FALL TO AROUND 5-10 KT AND
SEAS CONTINUE TO LOWER. MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECAST BEFORE HEADING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW THIS CLOSED H5 LOW DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ217-
219-239-241.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ360-
362.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ364-384.
DENNIS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page