289
FXUS62 KCHS 162332
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
732 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK KEY MESSAGE WAS DROPPED. KEY MESSAGE
1 AS WELL AS THE AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS WERE UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: A NEARLY 600 DM RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN
CONTROL OF THE FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, BEFORE SLIDING
OVER TO THE ARKLATEX ON FRIDAY. FOR TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE A BIT
OF A RADIATIONAL COMPONENT AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-
MID 60S INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE BEACHES. THE SPAN OF
CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH LOWS ABOVE 70 ENDED AT KCHS THIS MORNING
(1ST PLACE WITH 82 DAYS) AND COULD END AT KSAV TONIGHT
(CURRENTLY 2ND PLACE AT 97 DAYS). TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM
UP, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. SOME MODELS HAVE
INDICATING THAT A CLOSED H5 LOW WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF THE
CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY NIGHT, AND THEN TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, A RAIN-FREE FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: AS THIS H5 CLOSED LOW MEANDERS INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND, IT WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT PWATS TO RANGE FROM 1.75
TO 2.0 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE REGION AND WILL YIELD ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
THE SEA BREEZE SHIFTS INLAND.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
17/00Z TAFS:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR THROUGH 18/00Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN-
FREE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT. WINDS/SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTH SANTE-SAVANNAH NEARSHORE LEGS AND THE
ADVISORY THERE WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. IT CONTINUES THROUGH 2
AM FOR BOTH GEORGIA MARINE LEGS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BE APPARENT OVER THE REGION, EXPECT WINDS TO STILL MAINTAIN
SOME BREEZINESS WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 18-20 KTS
ON THURSDAY. MORE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WINDS FALL TO AROUND 5-10 KT AND
SEAS CONTINUE TO LOWER. MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECAST BEFORE HEADING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW THIS CLOSED H5 LOW DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
AMZ364-384.
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