854
FXUS62 KCHS 170954
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
554 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CLOSED LOW
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS ALONG WITH A LARGE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CENTERED AT H8 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
TODAY'S FORECAST WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH HIGHS AROUND 90
DEGREES.
ON FRIDAY, THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A CLOSED LOW OVER
CENTRAL FL AND A H5 RIDGE AXIS RUNNING WEST TO EAST ACROSS NC.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY BL WITH AROUND A 15 DEGREE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT THE SFC. IN ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SHALLOW LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 800-500 MB. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
DRY. HOWEVER, SOME CONVECTION SOURCED FROM THE MIDLANDS MAY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS, BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY
RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK: THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF A
CLOSED LOW OVER FL SATURDAY MORNING. IT'LL SHIFT INTO THE GULF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THERE ON SUNDAY. IT'S EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND MAYBE DISSIPATE ON
TUESDAY. BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE FLOW WILL USHER PLENTY OF MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION, WITH PWATS RISING TO ~2". ADDITIONALLY,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY. POPS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY, THEN RISING TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ON TUESDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
12Z TAFS: VFR. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. WINDS SHOULD TURN FROM THE EAST AROUND
19Z FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SEA BREEZE. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING, PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: INCREASING RAIN CHANCES COULD BRING
OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES, REDUCING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS TODAY, DECREASING TO 10
KTS OR LESS TONIGHT. SEAS MAY BEGIN THE DAY BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FT,
DECREASING TO 2 TO 3 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: EXPECT TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS. SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS WHILE SEAS ARE IN THE 2-3 FT
RANGE. THOUGH, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
RIP CURRENTS: ONGOING LONGSHORE CURRENT AND BREAKERS BETWEEN 3-4
FT WILL IMPACT THE GEORGIA BEACHES TODAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR RIP
CURRENTS SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER IS MODERATE TODAY.
WEAKENING WINDS AND DIMINISHING SURF SHOULD KEEP THE RIP CURRENT
RISK LOW FOR ALL BEACHES ON FRIDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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