069
FXUS62 KCHS 182214
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
614 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE 1 AND THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TONIGHT: ALOFT, THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SIT BETWEEN
PROMINENT RIDGING AND AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. THIS WILL DRIVE NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT AND ALSO SUPPORT A SIMILAR STORM MOTION. AT THE SURFACE, A
SURFACE TROUGH POSITIONED TO THE NORTH WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FEATURE OF INTEREST. CONVECTION FIRING OVER NORTH CAROLINA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES SHOULD WITH ONLY REMNANT
SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED AS ITS ENTERS THE LOWCOUNTRY. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-
COUNTY WITH NON-MENTIONABLE POPS (10% OR LESS) ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: ALOFT, A MID-UPPER LVL LOW WILL PASS SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA, SHIFTING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND TO
THE NORTHEAST GULF. AT THE SFC, A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY REACHING THE LOCAL AREA
LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE STALLING/DISSIPATING
EARLY WEEK. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 2.25 INCHES LOCALLY, AND LIKELY SUPPORT UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN
SUFFICIENT FORCING AND ABUNDANT SFC HEATING (HIGHS IN LOW-MID
90S SATURDAY, THEN UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S SUNDAY). GIVEN A MOISTURE
RICH AIRMASS, ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND A
FRONT NEARBY, THERE COULD BE A LOW-END THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. HOWEVER, MINIMAL SHEAR AND
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK: THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID-UPPER LOW
FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES EARLY WEEK, EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE PASSING LOW ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IN REGARDS TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE, AND COULD LEAD TO A GREATER RISK FOR A FEW STRONG
AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, MOISTURE
LEVELS REMAIN HIGH (PWATS 2+ INCHES), SUGGESTING AT LEAST SOME
MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS WHILE THE FRONT IS NEARBY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
19/00Z TAFS:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR THROUGH 20/00Z. A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS FROM
CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NORTH CAROLINA COULD APPROACH
KCHS AND KJZI OVERNIGHT, BUT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE APPROACH OF MULTIPLE FRONTS AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS.
PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
TONIGHT: VERY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
EVENING ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE SEA BREEZE, THOUGH
WINDS SHOULD PEAK IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE. THEN OVERNIGHT,
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BE 5 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-2
FT, EXCEPT 2-3 FT EARLY FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THERE ARE NO MARINE CONCERNS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. IN GENERAL, WINDS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE.
HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE AN UPTICK IN WINDS
(15-20 KT) AND BUILD SEAS (3-5 FT). TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS
AROUND MID WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEXT WEEK AHEAD/ALONG THE APPROACHING
FRONT.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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