263
FXUS62 KCHS 261828
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
228 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) THE COASTAL FLOOD RISK WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- 2) RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY, REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THE COASTAL FLOOD RISK WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AS A NOR'EASTER CHURNS OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, STEADY
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH THE EVENING, BEFORE TURNING MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THIS WILL CREATE A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR COASTAL FLOODING, THE ASTRO TIDE WILL STILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN
THE RECENT FULL MOON. THUS, THIS WILL STILL RESULT IN MINOR
(POSSIBLE MODERATE) COASTAL FLOODING WITH EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK (ESP. FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR).
CHARLESTON HARBOR: WITH THE ONGOING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, TIDAL
LEVELS COULD REACH 7.4 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR
THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE (APPROX. AT 834PM). THEREFORE, COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 7PM TO 11PM THIS EVENING FOR
CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTIES. SALTWATER INUNDATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE 2 TO 3 HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER HIGH TIDE, AND WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME ROADS BECOMING IMPASSABLE.
COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW (9/27) WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE FOR CHARLESTON AND COLLETON
COUNTY WITH THE MORNING HIGH TIDE (~9AM). THEREAFTER, IT'S LIKELY TO
SEE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.
FORT PULASKI: TIDAL LEVELS COULD REACH 9.2 FT MLLW FOR THIS
EVENING'S HIGH TIDE IN FORT PULASKI (APPROX. AT 841PM), THUS THIS
WILL NOT WARRANT A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY, GUIDANCE INDICATES TOMORROW
MORNING'S HIGH TIDE COULD SEE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY, REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
ONE LAST FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON AS THE NOR-EASTER CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST REGION, WITH RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
PERSISTING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP ANOTHER RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT
TONIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR INLAND
AREAS, AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THOSE ALONG THE COAST.
RISING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MAIN STORY, WHICH WILL
PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOW-LEVEL (H925) THERMAL FIELDS AS
RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT INTO MID-WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS ON SUNDAY PRIMARILY
IN THE LOWER 80S, THOUGH AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR WILL BE IN
THE MID 80S. MONDAY WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER AS THE MID-80S BUILD
NORTHWARDS AND UPPER 80S BECOME LIKELY SOUTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR,
WITH WIDESPREAD MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ON TUESDAY. NORMALLY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE END OF SEPTEMBER ARE IN THE LOWER/MID 80S,
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER...SO ENJOY THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES WHILE YOU CAN? WHILE WARM TEMPERATURES REMAIN,
MOISTURE RETURNS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE ATLANTIC,
BRINGING SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
18Z TAFS - VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN SUNDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH SEAS SIMILARLY DECREASING IN INTENSITY. THE 6 FOOT
WAVES WILL BE PUSHING OFF INTO THE WATERS 60+ NM OFFSHORE, ALLOWING
FOR THE LAST REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS FROM
SAVANNAH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA FROM 20-60NM OFFSHORE TO EXPIRE
OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE
ON TAP THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE DOMINANT
FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. LINGERING LONG-PERIOD SWELL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING NOR'EASTER WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH SUNDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND 5 TO 10 KT ON SUNDAY
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST IN THE EVENING.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND
3 TO 4 FT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, A WEAK COASTAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING 10-12S BACKSWELL DIRECTED TOWARDS THE
GEORGIA AND FLORIDA COASTS WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK
FROM TYBEE ISLAND SOUTH TO SAPELO ISLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
THEN AGAIN TOMORROW. A LOW RISK IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES BOTH DAYS.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ149-150.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ384.
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