277
FXUS62 KCHS 270629
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
229 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) THE COASTAL FLOOD RISK WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- 2) RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY, REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THE COASTAL FLOOD RISK WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AS A NOR'EASTER CHURNS OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, STEADY WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. EVEN THOUGH THIS WILL CREATE A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR COASTAL FLOODING, THE ASTRO TIDE WILL STILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN
THE RECENT FULL MOON. THUS, STILL EXPECT TO SEE MINOR (AND POSSIBLY
MODERATE) COASTAL FLOODING WITH EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK (ESP. FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR).
CHARLESTON HARBOR: WITH THE ONGOING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, TIDAL
LEVELS COULD REACH 7.5 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR DURING THIS
MORNING'S HIGH TIDE (~ 9 AM). THUS, PLAN TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 7
AM UNTIL 11 AM. THEREAFTER, IT'S LIKELY TO SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.
FORT PULASKI: TOTAL WATER FORECASTS INDICATE THIS MORNING'S HIGH
TIDE COULD PEAK AROUND 9.5 FT MLLW, WHICH WOULD YIELD MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IMPACTS ACROSS LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
DESPITE THE BORDERLINE NATURE, HAVE OPTED TO ALSO ISSUE A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA, WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT DURING THE
SAME TIME AS LISTED ABOVE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY, REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
TODAY WILL FEATURE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AS THE
NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO TREK TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TODAY, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL. CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE AGAIN
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING, WITH LOWS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW 50S
INLAND WITH LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COASTLINE.
AS THE NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION
EARLY THIS WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. A WARMING
TREND IS FORECAST AS RIDGING ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE REGION. BY THE END OF THE WEEK
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND SOME 90S SOUTH OF I-16 IN GEORGIA. THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT REAL SHOT AT
RAINFALL WILL BE LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR.
MARINE
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY: FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE ON
TAP THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND 5 TO 10 KT THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING,
WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 2 TO 3 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3 TO 4
FT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, A WEAK COASTAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BECOMES
MORE ESTABLISHED. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING 10-12S BACKSWELL DIRECTED TOWARDS THE
GEORGIA AND FLORIDA COASTS WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK
FROM TYBEE ISLAND SOUTH TO SAPELO ISLAND TODAY. OTHERWISE, A LOW
RISK IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
GAZ217-219-239-241.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
SCZ148>151.
MARINE...NONE.
CPM/SST
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