293
FXUS62 KCHS 271810
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
210 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) THE COASTAL FLOOD RISK WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- 2) RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY, REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THE COASTAL FLOOD RISK WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AS A NOR'EASTER CHURNS OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, STEADY WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. EVEN THOUGH THIS WILL CREATE A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR COASTAL FLOODING, THE ASTRO TIDE WILL STILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN
THE RECENT FULL MOON. THUS, STILL EXPECT TO SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WITH EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK (ESP. FOR
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR).
CHARLESTON HARBOR: WITH THE ONGOING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, TIDAL
LEVELS COULD REACH 7.1 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR DURING THE
NEXT TWO HIGH TIDES AT ROUGHLY 9 PM THIS EVENING AND 9 AM MONDAY
MORNING. A NEW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
UPCOMING HIGH TIDE. THEREAFTER, IT'S LIKELY TO SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.
FORT PULASKI: WHILE TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT FT PULASKI, THEY
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING RANGING AROUND 9 TO 9.1 FT MLLW
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY, REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
AS A NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST COAST, PLEASANTLY
WARM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION AS A
WEAK COASTAL TROUGH SETS UP. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO PEAK IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 80S, WARMEST SOUTH OF THE I-16
CORRIDOR, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. DID HAVE TO LOWER DEW POINTS
A SMIDGE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY, AND LOWERED OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES GIVEN A SIMILAR RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP, WITH
LOWER TO UPPER 50S EXPECTED INLAND AND LOWER/MID 60S ALONG THE
COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TO START OFF THE WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS, WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH PUSHING FURTHER
INLAND AND UP THE COAST EACH DAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS A RESULT, MONDAY WILL BE A TOUCH
WARMER AS THE MID-80S BUILD NORTHWARDS AND UPPER 80S BECOME LIKELY
SOUTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR, WITH WIDESPREAD MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ON
TUESDAY. HIGHER PWATS BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF TO OUR NORTH, THOUGH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW DUE TO THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDING
OVERHEAD DURING THAT PERIOD. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN COME AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARDS LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
18Z TAFS - VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN MONDAY, WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING NORTHERLY BY TOMORROW MORNING AND
THEN VARIABLE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY: NO MARINE CONCERNS EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. AS A
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARDS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY, A WEAK
COASTAL SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, LEADING TO
MARGINALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.
RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING 10-12S BACKSWELL DIRECTED TOWARDS THE
GEORGIA AND FLORIDA COASTS WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK
FROM TYBEE ISLAND SOUTH TO SAPELO ISLAND TODAY. OTHERWISE, A LOW
RISK IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES TODAY,
WITH A LOW RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES ON MONDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ150.
MARINE...NONE.
APT/BLACK
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