260
FXUS62 KCHS 291823
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
223 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) THE COASTAL FLOOD RISK WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK.
- 2) WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK.
- 3) UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THE COASTAL FLOOD RISK WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK.
AS THE NOR'EASTER TRAVELS FURTHER UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD, COASTAL
FLOODING WILL STILL POSE A RISK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK (ESP.
FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR). IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE LINGERING
CONDITIONS COULD BE FROM THE BUILD UP OF TIDAL WATERS ACROSS THE
INLAND WATERWAYS AND/OR THE MOVEMENT OF THE GULF STREAM HAS SLOWED.
CHARLESTON HARBOR: TIDAL LEVELS COULD REACH 7.3 FT MLLW IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR TOMORROW MORNING'S HIGH TIDE (~11AM).
THEREFORE, A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
TOMORROW MORNING'S HIGH TIDE FOR CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTIES.
SALTWATER INUNDATION WILL BE POSSIBLE 2 TO 3 HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER
HIGH TIDE, AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME ROADS BECOMING IMPASSABLE.
THEREAFTER, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.
FORT PULASKI: TIDAL LEVELS COULD REACH 9.2 FT MLLW FOR TOMORROW
MORNING'S HIGH TIDE IN FORT PULASKI (~11AM), THUS THIS WILL NOT
WARRANT A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH
THE WEEK, YIELDING A RAIN-FREE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S DAILY, ROUGHLY
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPT/EARLY OCT, WITH PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA REACHING THE LOWER 90S. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY
WARM EACH NIGHT, HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOW
TO MID 70S NEAR THE BEACHES.
KEY MESSAGE 3: UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NET MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO STEADILY INCREASE FRIDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS A MODEST RETURN FLOW SETS UP ALONG THE
BACKSIDE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY THEN CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE
SETTLING OVER FLORIDA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES
SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO SURGE
AS HIGH AS 2.25-2.50" AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL RUN ~2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY OCTOBER. WEAK FORCING ALOFT
IS NOTED IN MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS OWING TO SUBTLE DCVA AHEAD OF A
WEAK, MOSTLY SHEARED SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. SO, DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF A HIGH NET MOISTURE VALUES, THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO HOW MUCH RAINFALL AND RESULTING QPF WILL OCCUR GIVEN
THIS WEAK FORCING PATTERN. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWING A FAIRLY LARGE INTERQUARTILE RANGE (IQR) IN THE VARIOUS QPF
FORECASTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE SET OF GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
POPS FOR THE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY TIME PERIODS WERE LIMITED TO THE
LIKELY RANGE FOR NOW GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY. ANOTHER STRONG COLD AIR
DAMMING (CAD) EVENT IS EXPECTED TO SETUP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RETURN TO COOLER, FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
ALONG WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT THE
COAST.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
18Z TAF DISCUSSION: ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG
IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AT THE TERMINALS. STILL
FORECASTING VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, AS MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS
VSBYS GREATER THAN 5SM. FOG SHOULD DISAPPEAR QUICKLY JUST AFTER
SUNRISE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED RISK
FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA OVER THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS WITH EASTERLY WINDS 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS
LESS THAN 2 FT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE EAST, WELL OFFSHORE. LOCAL SEA BREEZE
ENHANCEMENTS LOOK LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON NEAR THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE
AND CHARLESTON HARBOR, BUT NO MEANINGFUL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS (EXCEPT 10-15 KT WITHIN
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH AFTERNOON) WITH SEAS 3 FT OR
LESS.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN PLACE FOR
ALL SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEACHES
WEDNESDAY DUE TO 13 SECOND SWELL MOVING IN.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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