614
FXUS62 KCHS 300616
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
216 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) THE COASTAL FLOOD RISK WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEK.
- 2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES
EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY.
- 3) UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THE COASTAL FLOOD RISK WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL DUE TO
THE RECENT FULL MOON. COMBINED WITH THE BUILD UP OF TIDAL WATERS
ACROSS INLAND WATERWAYS, AND A POSSIBLE SLOWING OF THE GULF
STREAM, COASTAL FLOODING WILL POSE A RISK THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, ESPECIALLY AT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. TIDE LEVELS AT THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR ARE FORECAST TO REACH 7.1-7.3 FT MLLW WITH
THIS MORNING'S ~11AM HIGH TIDE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
FORECAST AGAIN WITH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT
FORT PULASKI.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEK, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE RESULTING NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY AT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES,
YIELDING A GENERALLY RAIN-FREE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE 00Z REFS
AS WELL AS THE HREF AND HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEASTERN GA WHERE POPS ARE ~15-20%. HIGHS
WILL BE ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER/EARLY
OCTOBER, WITH PARS OUT SOUTHEASTERN GA REACHING INTO THE LOW
90S. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH NIGHT, HOVERING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 70S NEAR THE BEACHES.
KEY MESSAGE 3: UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MORE NOTABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL HOLD SOME INFLUENCE ON
FRIDAY, BUT INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVER THE
WEEKEND, HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL LOWER AS A LARGER SCALE TROUGH SHIFTS
INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
EVENTUALLY GET PUSHED OFFSHORE, THOUGH THERE ARE INCONSISTENCIES
WITH REGARDS TO TIMING. IT APPEARS THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD WILL BE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES INTERACT WITH DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION (NOTED BY PWATS PEAKING OVER 2
INCHES/~95TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMO). STILL DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR TWO WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO GEORGIA
FOLLOWING FROPA EARLY NEXT WEEK, LIKELY RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT
COOL DOWN AND GUSTY WINDS. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER IN THE
FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. THE ONLY REAL FORECAST ISSUE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG AROUND SUNRISE. MIFG IS
FEATURED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
MARINE
QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ACROSS ALL MARINE
ZONES. WINDS WILL SURGE A BIT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT SPEEDS
SHOULD MOSTLY TOP OUT IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE AND WILL BE STRONGEST
ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE.
MAIN TIME PERIOD OF CONCERN LOOKS TO BE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
GEORGIA FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT. THIS SET-UP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES, WITH EVEN A POTENTIAL FOR GALES,
PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN PLACE FOR ALL
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEACHES TODAY DUE TO
13 SECOND SWELL MOVING IN.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SCZ149-150.
MARINE...NONE.
CPM/ETM
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