606
FXUS62 KCHS 010616
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
216 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DENSE FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
- 2) THE COASTAL FLOOD RISK WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY NEXT WEEK.
- 3) UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- 4) COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DENSE FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT HAS RESULTED CLEAR SKIES
AND CALM WINDS, CREATING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. AS
TEMPERATURES DROP LATE TONIGHT, FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG (VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/4 MI)
ACROSS FAR INLAND ZONES IN GA AND THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY. A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITHIN 1 TO 2 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THE COASTAL FLOOD RISK WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY NEXT WEEK.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE
RECENT FULL MOON. COMBINED WITH THE BUILD UP OF TIDAL WATERS ACROSS
INLAND WATERWAYS, AND A POSSIBLE SLOWING OF THE GULF STREAM, COASTAL
FLOODING WILL POSE A RISK THROUGH FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY AT THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. TIDE LEVELS AT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR ARE FORECAST
TO REACH AROUND 7.0 FT MLLW WITH THE NOON HIGH TIDE TODAY. HAVE
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS JUNCTURE AS
THE DEPARTURES APPEAR TO BE TRENDING DOWNWARD AND THERE IS A CHANCE
THE TIDE COULD PEAK AROUND 6.9 FT MLLW (JUST BELOW MINOR FLOODING).
COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT FORT PULASKI.
BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHEAST WINDS INDUCED BY STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING,
COMBINED WITH ALREADY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES, WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES NEXT WEEK. MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING IS LIKELY, WITH A POSSIBILITY OF REACHING MAJOR LEVELS.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES, WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 3: UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL GET MORE ACTIVE AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK, AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGE WILL LOSE INFLUENCE AS A
LARGER SCALE TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN U.S. MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL SURGE WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES, WHICH IS WELL
ABOVE CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (NEAR 98TH PERCENTILE). SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY EACH DAY, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH BETTER FORCING ALOFT AND THE COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH. POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LREF INDICATES THE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL GREATER THAN 1" IS ROUGHLY 65-
75% THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, WITH A 25-35% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN
2". TIMING STILL NEEDS TO BE REFINED, BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD START TO
MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWING FROPA.
KEY MESSAGE 4: COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT INDICATING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE
SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THE AREA. WINDS COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
LAKE MOULTRIE, AND WE WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST/BEACHES. OTHERWISE, RAIN
CHANCES WILL LINGER, THOUGH ITS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH COVERAGE THERE WILL
BE. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
NEARBY, WHILE OTHERS KEEP ANY WAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
06Z TAFS: MOSTLY CLEAR AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ARE PRESENT OVER
THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. MIFG HAS DEVELOPED AT KCHS AS OF 06Z AND
IS FORECAST TO EXPAND INTO KJZI AND KSAV INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE RISK OF DENSE FOG WILL
LIKELY REMAIN INLAND OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE. THE 06Z
TAFS FEATURE MIFG WITH A TEMPO GROUP TO SHOW VISIBILITIES
GETTING DOWN TO 3SM. A WEAK SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS LATE THIS WEEK AND ALSO IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY ON TUESDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES. WINDS WILL SURGE A BIT
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT SPEEDS SHOULD MOSTLY TOP OUT IN THE
10-15 KNOT RANGE AND WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
LIKELY AS EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING. THE WORST CONDITIONS LOOK TO
OCCUR ON TUESDAY WHEN GUIDANCE INDICATES A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR
WINDS TO REACH GALE-FORCE (NBM SHOWING 60-80% CHANCES FOR GUSTS
GREATER THAN 34 KT, HIGHEST IN THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM). WE WILL
ALSO NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS,
INCLUDING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CPM/ETM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page