233
FXUS62 KCHS 011016
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
616 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE 2 HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE NEW TOTAL WATER
LEVEL FORECAST. THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT
THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DENSE FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
- 2) THE COASTAL FLOOD RISK WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY NEXT WEEK.
- 3) UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- 4) COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DENSE FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT HAS RESULTED CLEAR SKIES
AND CALM WINDS, CREATING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. AS
TEMPERATURES DROP LATE TONIGHT, FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG (VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/4 MI)
ACROSS FAR INLAND ZONES IN GA AND THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY. A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITHIN 1 TO 2 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THE COASTAL FLOOD RISK WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY NEXT WEEK.
TIDAL DEPARTURES CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND THE TIDE FORECAST FOR
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAGE HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 6.9 FT
MLLW, JUST SHY OF MINOR FLOODING. THERE IS CHANCE THAT THE GAGE
COULD REACH 7.0 FT MLLW FOR AN OBSERVATION OR TWO, HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS NOT PLANNED. COASTAL
FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT FORT PULASKI.
BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHEAST WINDS INDUCED BY STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING,
COMBINED WITH ALREADY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES, WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES NEXT WEEK. MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING IS LIKELY, WITH A POSSIBILITY OF REACHING MAJOR LEVELS.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES, WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 3: UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL GET MORE ACTIVE AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK, AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGE WILL LOSE INFLUENCE AS A
LARGER SCALE TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN U.S. MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL SURGE WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES, WHICH IS WELL
ABOVE CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (NEAR 98TH PERCENTILE). SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY EACH DAY, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH BETTER FORCING ALOFT AND THE COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH. POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LREF INDICATES THE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL GREATER THAN 1" IS ROUGHLY 65-
75% THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, WITH A 25-35% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN
2". TIMING STILL NEEDS TO BE REFINED, BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD START TO
MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWING FROPA.
KEY MESSAGE 4: COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT INDICATING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE
SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THE AREA. WINDS COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
LAKE MOULTRIE, AND WE WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST/BEACHES. OTHERWISE, RAIN
CHANCES WILL LINGER, THOUGH ITS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH COVERAGE THERE WILL
BE. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
NEARBY, WHILE OTHERS KEEP ANY WAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH.
AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
12Z TAFS: FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT KCHS/KJZI/KSAV EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT IMPACTS TO VSBYS AND CIGS UNTIL JUST AFTER 12Z
WITH SUNRISE. KCHS WILL INITIALIZE AT THE 12Z HOUR WITH IFR
CONDITIONS, QUICKLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY 13Z. THEREAFTER,
PREVAILING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS. FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS LATE THIS WEEK AND ALSO IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY
WINDS ARE LIKELY ON TUESDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES. WINDS WILL SURGE A BIT
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT SPEEDS SHOULD MOSTLY TOP OUT IN THE
10-15 KNOT RANGE AND WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
LIKELY AS EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING. THE WORST CONDITIONS LOOK TO
OCCUR ON TUESDAY WHEN GUIDANCE INDICATES A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR
WINDS TO REACH GALE-FORCE (NBM SHOWING 60-80% CHANCES FOR GUSTS
GREATER THAN 34 KT, HIGHEST IN THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM). WE WILL
ALSO NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS,
INCLUDING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CPM/ETM
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