832
FXUS62 KCHS 101918
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
318 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A TORNADO AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA
LOWCOUNTRY INTO THIS EVENING.
- 2) MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ADDITIONAL MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A TORNADO AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA
LOWCOUNTRY INTO THIS EVENING.
A LOCALIZED CORRIDOR OF TORNADO POTENTIAL HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
THE SC/GA BORDER, IN PROXIMITY TO AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT. A
STRONG TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.
SEVERAL SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A CONFLUENCE ZONE,
WITH REPORTS OF POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE NOTED IN BULLOCH COUNTY
GA. THE CAE VAD CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE, CURVED HODOGRAPH
AND 400+ M2/S2 0-3 KM SRH, WITH 200+ M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH
PRECEDING THE SUPERCELLS IN THE 18Z MESOANALYSIS. TORNADO
POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THESE SUPERCELLS, AND AN EF2
INTENSITY-EQUIVALENT TORNADO COULD OCCUR AS THESE STORMS
APPROACH THE WARM FRONT.
ADDITIONAL TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS ANOTHER SEMI-CONTINUOUS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVES ACROSS THE ALTAMAHA RIVER INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
MAINLY INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THE CURRENT
TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM.
ADDITIONALLY, DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AS SLOW
MOVING SUPERCELLS ARE BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WHILE
INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE LIKELY MOVING FAST ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING THREAT, LOCAL TRAINING OF CELLS COULD
STILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED AGAIN
THIS EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ADDITIONAL MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE RESULTED
IN A MIX OF VFR, MVFR, AND IFR CEILINGS, WITH LOCALIZED SUB
VFR-VISIBILITIES. MOST VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
COULD PUSH INTO THE SAV/CHS/JZI AREAS THIS EVENING.
LOOK FOR MVFR TO VFR TO PREVAIL TONIGHT AS WE BECOME MORE
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: NO HIGH CONFIDENCE CONCERNS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
MARINE
THE STRONGEST 850 MB WINDS HAVE PUSHED NORTH OF THE AREA A BIT
FASTER THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, AND WINDS ARE MOSTLY
MODERATE ACROSS THE WATERS, WITH A RELATIVELY RELAXED GRADIENT
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS SUCH, GALE WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT,
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT COMMON ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AGAIN BY
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY: REMNANTS OF ISAIAS COMBINED WITH
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SHOULD KEEP WINDS BREEZY ON
SUNDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR PORTIONS
OF THE COASTAL WATERS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER, EXPECT THESE MARINE
CONDITIONS TO BECOME ALMOST TRANQUIL AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD PRECIPITATION:
OCTOBER 10:
KCHS: 1.82/1990
KCXM: 2.13/1990
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114-
115-137-216>219-238>241.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ217-
219-239-241.
SC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ040-042>045-147>152.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ148-
149-151.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR SCZ150.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ360-362.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR AMZ364.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ384.
CEB
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