275
FXUS62 KCHS 111122
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
722 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY, BRINGING A LINE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS.
- 2) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS
COASTAL PORTIONS OF CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTIES.
- 3) THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY BEACHES TODAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY, BRINGING A LINE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS.
EARLY THIS MORNING, SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MAIN FRONT SITS
JUST TO OUR WEST AND RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL GA. THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL STEADILY PUSH
EASTWARD THIS MORNING, ENTERING OUR INTERIOR GA COUNTIES AROUND
4 AM THEN EXITING EAST OF CHARLESTON BY AROUND 12-1 PM. IN THE
PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE QUITE
HIGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN EXCESS OF 2.25 INCHES. FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT AND IN THE LOW-LEVEL JETTING AHEAD OF IT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO DRIVE A BAND OF PASSING SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT.
IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, THERE WILL BE SOME EMBEDDED ELEMENTS OF
MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAINFALL BUT SHOWER MOTION SHOULD BE FAST
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FLOODING THREAT QUITE LOW. ALSO, THERE
SHOULDN'T BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN
SHOWERS.
AT SUNRISE, THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS IS PROGGED
TO BE NEAR THE SAVANNAH AREA AND THE ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
THIS WOULD PUT THE BAND OF SHOWERS INTO THE CHARLESTON AREA
AROUND 10-11 AM AND EXITING EAST AFTER NOON. BASED ON THIS
TIMING, THERE LIKELY WON'T BE ENOUGH TIME TO ALLOW INSTABILITY
TO GET TOO HIGH, BUT THERE COULD STILL BE 500-1,000 J/KG. SO,
THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO
SHOW A DECENT UNI-DIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD, WITH 30-40 KNOTS
CENTERED AROUND 850-900 MB. THEREFORE, THESE SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME GUSTY
WINDS BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS
WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWEST AND COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTS INTO THE
25-30 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTIES.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THE UPCOMING
HIGH TIDE (~9:15 AM) ACROSS COASTAL COLLETON AND CHARLESTON
COUNTIES. THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE IS 6.56 FT MLLW AND AS WE
APPROACH LOW TIDE (~3 AM) THE TIDAL DEPARTURE IS RUNNING OVER 1
FT. WINDS WILL BECOME LESS SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE TIDAL DEPARTURES
AS THEY TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BUT, WE SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH DEPARTURE TO
PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT.
KEY MESSAGE 3: THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES TODAY.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING ELEVATED SWELL COMBINED WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT A HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
BEACHES. OTHERWISE, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR
ALL OTHER BEACHES.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE 12Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH MVFR CEILINGS EITHER IMPACTING OR
NEARBY KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL
BE TIMING IN THE PASSAGE OF A FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS FROM
THE WEST. THIS FEATURE HAS ALREADY PUSHED THROUGH KSAV. CURRENT
TIMING WOULD SUGGEST THE LINE WILL REACH KCHS AND KJZI AROUND
13Z AND WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY AROUND 15Z. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS JUST SHOWERS, THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES NOTED, SO WE MIGHT HAVE TO AMEND TO ADD IN THUNDER.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME BREEZY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THEN TURN MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. GUSTS WILL END AROUND
SUNSET AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR.
MARINE
TODAY: BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE
REMNANTS OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS PASS WELL TO THE WEST
OF THE REGION. THEREFORE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FROM THE FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION, A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING LEADING TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IN THE EARLY TO
MID- MORNING HOURS. ALSO, WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL BRIEFLY
SURGE INTO THE LOCAL WATERS IN THE EARLY MORNING AND SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AND 4 TO 6
FT IN THE GEORGIA WATERS. THEREAFTER, THE SWELL WILL SLOWLY
TAPER BACK AND SEAS WILL DECREASE TO 3 TO 5 FT OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY INTO THURSDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM BEHIND
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORECAST
FEATURE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY BREEZY ON MONDAY MORNING, BEFORE TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND REMAINING AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ149-
150.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ150.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ360-
362.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ364.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ384.
BSH/DENNIS
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