368
FXUS62 KCHS 121819
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
219 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
- 2) BREEZY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL-BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL US TODAY WITH
DEEP DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BUILDING OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS
UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY EXPAND AND DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH THE STRONG UPPER
RIDGE OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE UPPER 80S AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPOTS HITTING 90. WE COULD
EASILY FLIRT WITH DAILY RECORD HIGHS BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: BREEZY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL-BELOW NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SC
LOWCOUNTRY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT IT SHOULD BE A DRY COLD FRONT, ONLY
SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GFS H85 TEMPERATURES OVER LAKE MOULTRIE
COOL FROM 17C AT 0Z SAT TO 8C BY 0Z SUN. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURE
WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SAT, WITH HIGHS RANGING AROUND 70
DEGREES. IN ADDITION, NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BE BREEZY, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THE CENTER OF A 1037 MB HIGH WILL SETTLE
OVER VA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE SFC HIGH WILL RIDGE SW ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA ON SUNDAY. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, GENERALLY BETWEEN 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH. THE NORTH WINDS WILL MAINTAIN COOL LLVL THICKNESS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE, LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
INLAND TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. SOME AREAS ARE
EXPECTED SEE THEIR COOLEST TEMPERATURES SINCE EARLY MAY.
AS INLAND SFC RIDGING CONTINUES, GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. LINGERING COOL LLVL THICKNESSES ALONG
WITH SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD LIMIT HEATING ON
SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS SE GA. THE CENTER OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT OVER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY,
RESULTING IN WINDS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT FROM THE EAST. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD WARM AROUND 5 DEGREES OVER SUNDAY'S READINGS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
MARINE
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL, FAIR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEK. GENERALLY, WINDS WILL REMAIN 10 KTS OR
LESS WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FT.
THIS WEEKEND: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ELEVATED WINDS, GALES POSSIBLE,
AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 12:
KCXM: 86/2014
OCTOBER 14:
KCHS: 88/2024
KCXM: 86/2024
KSAV: 88/2024
OCTOBER 15:
KCHS: 87/2021
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
BLACK/NED
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