666
FXUS62 KCHS 131100
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
700 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY.
- 2) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL YIELD BREEZY AND WELL-BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
ALOFT, PROMINENT RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND SETTLE DIRECTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL THEN BREAK DOWN INTO FRIDAY AS A SHARP TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE, DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE RETREATING OFFSHORE FRIDAY AS A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE THEME FOR
THE WEEK WILL BE RAIN- FREE CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE SETUP WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 80S
EACH DAY, WHICH WOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 7-9 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. IN FACT, A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS
REACHING 90 IS IN PLAY ALMOST EACH DAY AND WE COULD BE NEAR
DAILY RECORDS AT TIMES (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
KEY MESSAGE 2: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL YIELD BREEZY AND WELL-
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, YIELDING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WILL LEAD TO
FAIRLY NICE FALL- LIKE WEEKEND. ALSO, INLAND SURFACE RIDGING
WILL YIELD BREEZY NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 15-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SURFACE RIDGE
WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE ON MONDAY,
RESULTING IN THE BREEZY WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE AND SHIFT MORE
EASTERLY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL WARM BACK UP INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE FOG
AND LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE IS EVEN POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT AROUND SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE ISN'T PARTICULARLY HIGH
AT THIS POINT, SO WE HAVE JUST INTRODUCED SOME SHALLOW GROUND
FOG INTO THE TAF'S AT 09Z. UPCOMING TAF ISSUANCES WILL PROVIDE
FURTHER UPDATES AND REFINEMENTS TO THE POTENTIAL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR.
MARINE
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK AND YIELD QUIET CONDITIONS. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WE SHOULD START TO SEE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FRIDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE
AROUND 2 FEET THROUGH THE WEEK.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THIS WILL
YIELD TO A SHARP WIND SHIFT AND DETERIORATING MARINE
CONDITIONS. FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
SEAS TO BUILD, WITH THE ROUGHEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
OPEN COASTAL WATERS AND OFFSHORE LEGS. EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM
25 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL OF THE
LOCAL WATERS + A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR
ON FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO
5 TO 9 FT, WITH 10 TO 12 FT POSSIBLE FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR AND NEARSHORE WATERS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
SHELTERED, BUT EXPECT A STIFF BREEZE AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS NEAR
INLETS AND AGAINST THE OUTGOING TIDES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
THEREAFTER, THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY
WITH WINDS GRADUALLY EASING BACKWARDS AND TURNING MORE EASTERLY
ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, A LONGER-PERIOD SWELL MAY PERSIST AFTER THE
LOCAL WINDS DIMINISH WITH ELEVATED SEAS FORECAST TO LAST INTO
THE MID-WEEK. MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR
THIS WEEKEND BEFORE HEADING OFFSHORE.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 14:
KCHS: 88/2024
KCXM: 86/2024
KSAV: 88/2024
OCTOBER 15:
KCHS: 87/2021
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
BSH/DENNIS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page