426
FXUS62 KCHS 141104
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
704 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY.
- 2) EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY WORK TO THE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL THEN GET PUSHED OFFSHORE
ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A SHARPENING TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE, DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WARM AND DRY IS A GREAT WAY TO SUMMARIZE THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH DAILY HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S EACH DAY. WE COULD APPROACH DAILY RECORDS AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY TODAY AND THURSDAY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
DETAILS. ALSO OF NOTE, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG EACH MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
A STRONG COLD WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, YIELDING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT IT SHOULD BE A DRY COLD
FRONT WITH ONLY SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-
COUNTY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WILL LEAD TO
FAIRLY NICE FALL-LIKE WEEKEND. ALSO, INLAND SURFACE RIDGING
WILL YIELD BREEZY NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 15-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SURFACE RIDGE
WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE ON MONDAY,
RESULTING IN THE BREEZY WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE AND SHIFT MORE
EASTERLY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL WARM BACK UP INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT SUNRISE, THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND, THOUGH MOST OF IT
IS SHALLOW. WE COULD SEE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FOR THE FIRST
HOUR OR SO OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL 3 SITES, BUT THEN CONDITIONS
WILL TRANSITION BACK TO VFR QUICKLY AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME PATCHY FOG
AROUND THURSDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR.
MARINE
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK AND YIELD QUIET CONDITIONS. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WE SHOULD START TO SEE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FRIDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE
AROUND 2 FEET THROUGH THE WEEK.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THIS WILL
YIELD TO A SHARP WIND SHIFT AND DETERIORATING MARINE
CONDITIONS. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
SEAS TO BUILD, WITH THE ROUGHEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
OPEN COASTAL WATERS AND OFFSHORE LEGS. EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM
25 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL OF THE
LOCAL WATERS + A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR
ON FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO
6 TO 10 FT, WITH 8 TO 12 FT POSSIBLE FARTHER OFFSHORE.
THEREAFTER, THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY
WITH WINDS GRADUALLY EASING BACKWARDS AND TURNING MORE EASTERLY
ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, A LONGER-PERIOD SWELL MAY PERSIST AFTER THE
LOCAL WINDS DIMINISH WITH ELEVATED SEAS FORECAST TO LAST INTO
THE MID-WEEK. MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR
THIS WEEKEND BEFORE HEADING OFFSHORE.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 14:
KCHS: 88/2024
KCXM: 86/2024
KSAV: 88/2024
OCTOBER 15:
KCHS: 87/2021
KSAV: 90/1925
OCTOBER 16:
KCXM: 88/2018
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
BSH/DENNIS
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