436
FXUS62 KCHS 142342
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
742 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY.
- 2) EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION. AT
THE SURFACE, DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKENING BEFORE MOVING INTO
THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH H925
TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE 20-22 DEG C RANGE BOTH TODAY AND
THURSDAY, WHICH IS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE
DATES, NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
BOTH DAYS. AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S, WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST, WITH THE INDIVIDUAL
RECORDS AT OUR CLIMATE SITES IN THE CLIMATE SECTION AT THE BOTTOM.
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS MORNING, PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM DEW POINTS TODAY
SHOULD SURGE INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S, AND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
SIMILARLY IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S, CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED. HOWEVER, WITH HIGH CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS, THE FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY AND SHALLOW. AREAS
IN THE VICINITY OF DARIEN, GA HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE NEAR 25%.
KEY MESSAGE 2: EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SC
LOWCOUNTRY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. NAM12 SHOWS A
FRONTAL WAVE MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING, RESULTING
IN A BAND OF LIGHT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, GFS AND
ECMWF ALONG WITH THE AI VARIANTS GENERALLY AGREES THAT IT SHOULD BE
A DRY COLD FRONT, ONLY SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHERN DORCHESTER AND
BERKELEY COUNTIES AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GFS H85 TEMPERATURES
OVER LAKE MOULTRIE COOLS BY 10 DEGREES BETWEEN 0Z SAT TO 0Z SUN. AS
A RESULT, TEMPERATURE WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SAT, WITH HIGHS
RANGING AROUND 70 DEGREES. IN ADDITION, NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE BREEZY, WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. IN FACT, NORTH
WINDS ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE MAY STRENGTHEN EARLY SATURDAY, GUSTING
AROUND 25 KTS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BEGINNING EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THE CENTER OF A 1035 MB HIGH WILL SETTLE
OVER VA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE SFC HIGH WILL RIDGE SW ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA ON SUNDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD, GENERALLY BETWEEN 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
20 TO 25 MPH. THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN COOL LLVL
THICKNESSES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE, LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
INLAND TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS SE GA AND
THE SC LOWCOUNTRY.
THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT OVER OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY, RESULTING IN WINDS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT FROM
THE EAST-NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD WARM NEAR
SEASONABLE NORMALS, MID TO UPPER 70S. GRADUAL WARMING EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CHANCES FOR PATCHY AND SHALLOW GROUND FOG
RETURN LATE OVERNIGHT, WITH AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF DARIEN, GA
HAVING A 25% CHANCE FOR VISIBILITIES TO GET BELOW 1 MILE.
ELSEWHERE, THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE TRANSIENT AND THIN. ANY FOG
WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH NO AVIATION CONCERNS
FOR THE REST OF THURSDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT, REMAINING BELOW 10 KNOTS
OR LESS.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE NORTH AND STRENGTHEN TO 25 TO
30 KTS ACROSS THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH GALE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE AND OUTER SC/GA WATERS. GALE WATCHES ARE LIKELY FOR ALL
MARINE ZONES OUTSIDE THE CHARLESTON HARBOR BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR, BEGINNING
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MUCH STRONGER FOR MARINE
WIND GUSTS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING, WITH THE NBM INDICATING PEAK
PROBABILITIES, 40 PERCENT, OF STORM FORCE (48 KTS) WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THE OUTER GA WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE OUTER SC WATERS. IF GUIDANCE
REMAINS STRONG, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STORM WATCHES/WARNINGS COULD BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE OUTER GA/SC WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST WILL FEATURE
GUSTS AROUND 45 KTS ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS SATURDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING. SURGING GALE WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WITH GALE TO POTENTIAL STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT, GRADUALLY
BUILDING TO 10 TO 16 FT BY SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ELEVATED SEAS
MAY RESULT IN BREAKERS IN EXCESS OF 5 FT, WITH HIGH SURF CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GA COAST. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, SIX FT OR
GREATER SEAS MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE NEARSHORE AND OUTER WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 14:
KCHS: 88/2024
KCXM: 86/2024
KSAV: 88/2024
OCTOBER 15:
KCHS: 87/2021
KCXM: 88/1925
KSAV: 90/1925
EQUIPMENT
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON DOPPLER RADAR (KCLX) IS
EXPECTED TO BE DOWN FOR AROUND TWO HOURS THURSDAY MORNING FOR
MAINTENANCE.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
APT/CPM/NED
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