921
FXUS62 KCHS 151106
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
706 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY.
- 2) EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVERALL, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL STEADILY SLIP EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST BY
FRIDAY MORNING AS A SHARP TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SIT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY MOVING OFF THE COAST
FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
IN THE DAY. WE WILL AGAIN BE NEAR DAILY RECORDS TODAY (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION) FOLLOWED BY MORE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR FRIDAY.
PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS MORNING. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTION IS NOT EXPECTED,
THERE COULD BE A FEW PATCHES THAT PRODUCE SHARP VISIBILITY
CHANGES OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
YIELD WARM CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO HIGH 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY
FAVORS A RELATIVELY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT, WITH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
SATURDAY: A NOTICEABLY COOLER AIRMASS SHOULD BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE REGION ON SATURDAY IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION, REPRESENTING A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE FROM THE
WARMTH EXPERIENCED DURING THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME QUITE BREEZY WITH SPEEDS 15-20 MPH
AND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND PERSISTENT WINDS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL DISTINCTLY MORE
LIKE FALL. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL TURN CHILLY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND INTO
GEORGIA.
SUNDAY: EXPECT COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH UPPER 60S ALONG THE COASTLINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY
FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS, WITH READINGS
IN THE 50S CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE. THE COMBINATION OF LOW
HUMIDITY, RAIN-FREE FORECAST, AND PERIODS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD
PRODUCE CRISP, SEASONABLE FALL-LIKE WEATHER.
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE OF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY, RESULTING IN WINDS TO WEAKEN
AND SHIFT FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA
SHOULD WARM NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS, MID TO UPPER 70S. GRADUAL
WARMING EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND THE AREA
THIS MORNING, MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG. THIS
WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH THE ONSET OF HEATING. OTHERWISE, NO
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CONCERNS. WE WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG
AROUND FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR.
MARINE
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS TODAY WITH WINDS TOPPING OUT AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY FRIDAY, WINDS WILL TURN TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE FOR MOST OF THE DAY,
INCREASING INTO THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE LATE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE AROUND 2 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THIS WILL
YIELD TO A SHARP WIND SHIFT AND DETERIORATING MARINE
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND STRENGTHEN, WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS PREACHING 25-30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35-45 KTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT GALE
WARNINGS FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL WATERS + A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR ON FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT SOME GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
MUCH STRONGER FOR THE MARINE WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING, WITH THE NBM CONTINUING TO INDICATE THE CHANGE FOR
STORM FORCE (48 KTS) WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS
AND PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS. IT'S
POSSIBLE THAT A STORM WATCH/WARNING MIGHT BE WARRANTED FOR THAT
PORTION OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT, WITH 10 TO 15 FT POSSIBLE
FARTHER OFFSHORE (HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS). THE
ELEVATED SEAS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BREAKERS IN EXCESS OF 5 FT,
WITH HIGH SURF CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GA
COAST. THEREAFTER, THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
MODIFY WITH WINDS GRADUALLY EASING BACKWARDS AND TURNING MORE
EASTERLY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, A LONGER-PERIOD SWELL MAY PERSIST
AFTER THE LOCAL WINDS DIMINISH WITH ELEVATED SEAS FORECAST TO
LAST INTO THE MID-WEEK. MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE MONITOR THE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND BEFORE HEADING OFFSHORE.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 15:
KCHS: 87/2021
KCXM: 88/1925
KSAV: 90/1925
EQUIPMENT
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON DOPPLER RADAR (KCLX) IS
EXPECTED TO BE DOWN FOR AROUND TWO HOURS THURSDAY MORNING FOR
MAINTENANCE.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
BSH/DENNIS
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