834
FXUS62 KCHS 151837
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
237 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY.
- 2) EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONTINUED WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH H925 TEMPERATURES IN THE 20-22
DEG C RANGE WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S TODAY. THIS IS WITHIN REACH OF A FEW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE INDIVIDUAL RECORDS AT
OUR CLIMATE SITES IN THE CLIMATE SECTION AT THE BOTTOM OF AFD.
SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE MORNINGS, PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE MORNING. INLAND,
WE'LL LIKELY REACH CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES WITH MAX EXPECTED DEW
POINTS TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S, RESULTING IN CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES
REACHED/EXCEEDED. ALONG THE COAST, FOG IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS APPROACH CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURE BUT DON'T EXCEED
THEM. PROBABILITIES FOR VISIBILITIES BELOW 5 MILES ARE IN THE 20 TO
30% RANGE, WITH PROBABILITIES FOR A MILE DROPPING BELOW 15%.
AFTER ANY FOG MIXES OUT, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUILD INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE H925 TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 20-22 DEG C RANGE
PRODUCING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION, WINDS
BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
KEY MESSAGE 2: EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
FRIDAY: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND, LIKELY PASSING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL, GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S. TEMPS SHOULD FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF RECORD WARMTH.
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES MODEST MOISTURE SUPPLY WITH AND POST FROPA
DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL, BUT THE DURATION SUGGESTS VERY
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. POST FROPA,
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP, BECOMING BREEZY AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT
WELL SHORT OF ANY LAND-BASED HEADLINE CRITERIA (GUSTS TO 15-20 MPH).
THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE, WHERE MID 70S WATER
TEMPS PROMOTE AMPLE MIXING INTO 30 KT LOW-LVL WIND FIELDS. A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR LAKE MOULTRIE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: A NOTICEABLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SOME 20-25 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY, STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER
70S ELSEWHERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THEN LOW-MID 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO MID 40S INLAND TO LOW-MID 50S NEAR
THE COAST.
BREEZY NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE OVER THE
WEEKEND, AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE PROMOTES MIXING INTO ENHANCED LOW-LVL WIND FIELDS (1000MB
GEOSTROPHIC WINDS 30-40 KT). WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH WILL BE
COMMON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR MOST AREAS, WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE BEACHES, UPWARDS TO 30-35 MPH. CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH WINDS COULD
BECOME RATHER GUSTY ON BRIDGES NEAR THE COAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL
REMAIN ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE WHERE WARMER LAKE WATERS PROMOTE
STRONGER LOW-LVL MIXING AND LIKELY SUPPORT LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ON MONDAY, SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION, BUT
START TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HEADING INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, NORTHERLY SFC FLOW REMAINS AND
LIKELY SLOWS AIRMASS MODIFICATION EARLY TO MID WEEK, PERHAPS DUE TO
LOW PRESSURE ALSO ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM MID-LATE WEEK, BUT COULD REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (MID-UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS).
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH A CU FIELD
CAN'T BE RULED OUT NEAR 5KFT AS IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE. OTHERWISE
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO BECOME OUT OF THE SOUTH LATER TODAY,
BECOMING WEAKLY SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. CHANCES FOR PATCHY SHALLOW
GROUND FOG INCREASE DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PROBABILITIES
FOR VISIBILITIES BELOW 5 MILES ARE IN THE 20 TO 30% RANGE, WITH
PROBABILITIES FOR A MILE DROPPING BELOW 15%.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS. HOWEVER, BREEZY NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: NO MARINE CONCERNS IN THE NEAR-TERM AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING FURTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT,
SHIFTING THE WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS LOCAL
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO A SHARP WIND SHIFT AND DETERIORATING
MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS SATURDAY. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT NORTHERLY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KT AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8 FT LATER SATURDAY, SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS PRIOR TO
FURTHER DETERIORATION ACROSS MARINE AREAS. GALE FORCE WINDS ENTER
ACROSS LOCAL WATERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS
AND A PINCHING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OCCURS, RESULTING IN
ENHANCED NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS. GALE WATCHES/WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR ALL NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE SC/GA WATERS SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEGIN ON TUESDAY,
ALTHOUGH STILL LIKELY SUPPORTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
CONCERN OF REACHING STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS PARTS OF OUTER
WATERS (NBM SUPPORTS ~40% PROBABILITY OF 48 KT WIND GUSTS),
ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS DURING THE PEAK OF THE EVENT
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POTENTIAL STORM WATCH.
STRONG NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO SUPPORT LARGE SEAS THIS
WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY UPWARDS TO 7-11 FT ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS
(LARGEST IN GA WATERS) AND 10-15 FT ACROSS OFFSHORE WATERS (LARGEST
IN GA WATERS). ELEVATED SEAS AND STRONG/PERSISTENT NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS LIKELY SUPPORT BREAKERS IN EXCESS OF 5 FT ALONG THE BEACHES,
LARGEST ACROSS GA. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE GA COAST INTO TUESDAY. THEREAFTER,
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MODIFIES WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT,
LEADING TO SUBSIDING SEAS. HOWEVER, LONG-PERIOD SWELL MAY PERSIST
AFTER LOCAL WINDS DECLINE, SUPPORTING ELEVATED SEAS INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE HEADING OFFSHORE.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 15:
KCHS: 87/2021
KCXM: 88/1925
KSAV: 90/1925
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
APT/DPB
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