926
FXUS62 KCHS 160659
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
259 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TODAY.
- 2) EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TODAY.
ALOFT, THE DAY WILL BEGIN WITH THE FORECAST AREA SITUATED
BETWEEN A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC AND A SHARP
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS TODAY AND TONIGHT,
AND SHOULD BE SITUATED NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TODAY, WITH THE FRONT LIKELY ENTERING THE
INTERIOR OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY. SO FOR TODAY, THE FORECAST AREA WILL SIT SOLIDLY
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE RESULT WILL BE
ONE MORE DAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S EVERYWHERE YET AGAIN
WHICH IS ON THE ORDER OF 7-9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DAILY RECORD
HIGHS ARE AT OR ABOVE 90 AT BOTH CHS AND SAV (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION), SO IT IS UNLIKELY WE WILL SET ANY RECORDS. BUT
REGARDLESS, QUITE WARM FOR MID OCTOBER.
TODAY WILL ALSO BRING BREEZIER CONDITIONS THAN THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE COMBINATION OF GRADUALLY INCREASING WIND FIELDS ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AS WELL AS DEEP DIURNAL MIXING ASSOCIATED
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL YIELD FREQUENT
GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
SATURDAY: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED OFF OUR COAST IN
THE MORNING, AND QUICKLY SHIFTING AWAY. MEANWHILE, STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL BE BUILDING TOWARDS THE
EAST. MODELS HINT AT PERHAPS ISOLATED TO MAYBE SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
THOUGH, QPF WILL BE MINIMAL. DRIER CONDITIONS BUILD IN BY LATE
AFTERNOON. BUT THE BIG CHANGE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES. COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA, AND PERHAPS THE
LOWER 70S ALONG OUR GA COAST. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.
IT'LL ALSO BE VERY BREEZY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
SUNDAY: TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN COLDER DESPITE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. HIGHS SHOULD ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA, AND MAYBE THE UPPER 60S ALONG/NEAR OUR
GA COAST. THE BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE COAST.
LAKE WIND: A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR
MOULTRIE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK: HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION, BUT START TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT COULD
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WE WILL LIKELY AGAIN SEE SHALLOW GROUND FOG AROUND THE AREA
THIS MORNING, STARTING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT KCHS, KJZI, OR KSAV.
THROUGH THE DAY, CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH WINDS SHIFTING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD A FEW GUSTS INTO THE 15-18 KNOT RANGE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
MARINE
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY AND WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE LOCAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT UP TO SUNRISE SATURDAY. FOR TODAY,
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS PRIMARILY IN
THE SC WATERS. OVERNIGHT, THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE, TURNING WINDS TO NORTHWESTERLY AND BRINGING THE
BEGINNING OF A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF FLOW. BY SUNRISE SATURDAY,
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
INTO THE 25+ KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH THE GREATEST INCREASE
BEGINNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT CLOSE TO SUNRISE
SATURDAY. BY THAT TIME, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2-4 FEET AND
INCREASING.
EXTENDED MARINE: GALE TO STRONG GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED OFF OUR COAST SATURDAY
MORNING, AND QUICKLY SHIFTING AWAY. MEANWHILE, STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL BE BUILDING TOWARDS THE
EAST. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
LEAD TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE DIFFERENCES
ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS, LEADING TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATING
MARINE CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. WE'LL START OFF WITH A FEW HOURS
OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SATURDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY GALE
CONDITIONS IN OUR ATLANTIC ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON. WE NOW HAVE
GALE WATCHES UP FOR OUR ATLANTIC ZONES, BUT IT'S SAFE TO SAY
THEY'LL BE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD
SUPPORT GALE TO STRONG GALE CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS AND STEEPEST/LARGEST SEAS FURTHER OFFSHORE. WINDS
SHOULD EASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH SURF: ELEVATED SEAS AND STRONG/PERSISTENT NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL SUPPORT BREAKERS IN EXCESS OF 5 FT ALONG OUR BEACHES,
WITH THE LARGEST WAVES ACROSS OUR GA BEACHES. HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR OUR ENTIRE COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
AND POSSIBLY ALONG OUR GA COAST INTO TUESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: THE COMBINATION OF STRONG/PERSISTENT GALES AND
ELEVATED SEAS WILL GENERATE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ALL OF OUR BEACHES ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY AN ELEVATED RISK
CONTINUING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 16:
KCHS: 90/2018
KCXM: 88/2018
KSAV: 91/2018
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ360-
362-364.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR AMZ360-362-364.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
AMZ380-382-384.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
AMZ384.
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