025
FXUS62 KCHS 161910
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
310 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- 2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: ALOFT, THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A BROAD HIGH
CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SHARP/DIGGING TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TROUGH
WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE EAST CONUS DURING THE DAY, HELPING FORCE A
STRONG COLD FRONT EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND EVENING, BEFORE ENTERING THE LOCAL AREA
DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A SOMEWHAT
BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SFC WIND (GUSTS TO 15-20 MPH) WILL HELP
SUPPORT TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S LOCALLY. DAILY RECORD
HIGHS ARE AT OR ABOVE 90 AT BOTH CHS AND SAV (SEE CLIMATE SECTION),
SO IT REMAINS UNLIKELY THAT RECORDS WILL BE TIED OR BROKEN.
MILD TEMPS (LOW-MID 70S) WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING, BUT WILL QUICKLY COOL ONCE FROPA OCCURS LATE NIGHT,
GENERALLY INTO THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S NEAR THE COAST
BEFORE SUNRISE. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LIMITED
MOISTURE SUPPLY NEAR AND SHORTLY POST FROPA, SUPPORTING A FEW
SHOWERS WITH LIGHT PRECIP ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT OFF THE
COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ITS WAKE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD SATURDAY AFTERNOON, DROPPING TEMPERATURES
BELOW EARLY-AUTUMN NORMALS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS, WITH LOWER 70S
CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHTS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 40S INLAND, WITH LOW TO MID 50S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
STRETCH DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH
THE LOW TO MID 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK.
IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES, BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
QUICKLY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE NOTICEABLY
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 30 MPH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
OVER ELEVATED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. WHILE WINDS REMAINS JUST SHY
OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUITE GUSTY.
ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE, COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE
WATERS WILL PRODUCE GUSTS OF 25-30 KT AND ROUGH CHOP. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT CHS/JZI THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z SATURDAY
AND LIKELY PREVAIL AT SAV THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER, A COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS ALL TERMINALS PRIOR TO/NEAR DAYBREAK
SATURDAY, RESULTING IN A SHARP WIND SHIFT (SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST, THEN NORTH) AND INCREASINGLY BREEZY CONDITIONS (GUSTS 15-
25 KT) MID MORNING SATURDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHOWERS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, IMPACTING THE CHS/JZI
TERMINALS BETWEEN 10-16Z SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
BEHIND THE FRONT AT CHS/JZI, STARTING AROUND 13Z SATURDAY AND
PERSISTING THROUGH 18Z. VCSH HAS BEEN ADDED TO CHS/JZI BETWEEN 10-
13Z, FOLLOWED BY PROB30 GROUPS WITH SHOWERS AND LOW-END MVFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 13-16Z SATURDAY. SHOWER AND FLIGHT RESTRICTION
ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT SAV AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25 KT WILL OCCUR AT
THE TERMINALS SATURDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY.
MARINE
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TODAY, BEFORE REACHING THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT/NEAR SUNRISE SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY ACROSS SC WATERS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
NEAR/ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, THEN SHARPLY CHANGE DIRECTION
TO NORTHWEST/NORTH BY AROUND SUNRISE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION NEAR
AND POST FROPA WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SUSTAINED 15-20 KT WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD DURING THE NIGHT,
GENERALLY TO 2-4 FT THROUGH SUNRISE.
EXTENDED MARINE: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
U.S. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION STREAMS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SATURDAY
MORNING WILL QUICKLY ESCALATE TO WIDESPREAD GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL
OUR MARINE ZONES OUT TO 60 NM BY THE AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTH-
NORTHEAST GALES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING, FEATURING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-35 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
OF 35-45 KT. HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY, PEAKING AT 7 TO 11
FEET IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 11 TO 15 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT, BUT
ELEVATED SEAS WILL NECESSITATE EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
HIGH SURF: PROLONGED GALES AND A CONTINUOUS NORTH-NORTHEAST FETCH
WILL GENERATE LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 5+ FEET ALONG AREA BEACHES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST BREAKERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA BEACHES. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE
COAST. ADDITIONALLY, PROLONGED WAVE ACTION COULD RESULT IN MINOR TO
MODERATE BEACH EROSION.
RIP CURRENTS: THE COMBINATION OF STRONG/PERSISTENT GALES, ELEVATED
SEAS, AND BUILDING LONG-PERIOD SWELL WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES SATURDAY. A HIGH RISK IS EXPECTED
FOR ALL BEACHES ON SUNDAY, WITH AN ELEVATED RISK PERSISTING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK AS HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 16:
KCHS: 90/2018
KCXM: 88/2018
KSAV: 91/2018
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ360-
362-364-384.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ360-
362-364-380-382-384.
BRS/DPB
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