146
FXUS64 KCRP 022330
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
630 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 627 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
- MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) RAIN CHANCES RETURN TODAY AND CONTINUE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA THIS WEEK, WITH PWAT
VALUES APPROACHING 2" BY THURSDAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS PWAT
VALUES EXCEEDING 2" FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE EACH AFTERNOON TO INITIATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MEANWHILE, MID-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL EJECT SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOWARD
SOUTH TEXAS AS IT MOVES EAST. THESE SHORTWAVES WILL ENHANCE
CONVECTION, PARTICULARLY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, LEADING TO
A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DUE TO THIS AND AREAS WITH
SATURATED SOILS, WPC HAS INCLUDED THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND WESTERN
COASTAL PLAINS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING
THURSDAY. THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, FURTHER ENHANCING RAINFALL. THE MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL EXPAND TO COVER ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS FOR
FRIDAY, BEFORE RECEDING TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 80S AND 90S, BUT WITH HIGH MOISTURE
VALUES, HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100-105. THIS WILL LEAD TO MINOR TO
MODERATE HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS. THIS COULD BE REDUCED SLIGHTLY
SHOULD CLOUD COVER OR RAINFALL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND,
PERHAPS, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS LOW BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SWELL
PERIODS INCREASING TO 8-9 SECONDS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
VFR LATE THIS EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SPATIAL REDUCTION IN VIS ASSOCIATED
WITH PATCHY FOG. OVERNIGHT (BEYOND 08Z), SOME HI-RES MODELS BEGIN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
FURTHER REDUCE FLIGHT CATEGORIES, THOUGH EXACT STORM
POSITION/TIMING IS STILL LOW IN CONFIDENCE, THUS PROB30 GROUPS
WERE ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASES IN
COVERAGE AFTER 14Z AND MOST TERMINALS HAVE PROB30 FOR THIS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE (BF 2-4) WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEKEND. LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 87 75 86 / 20 50 20 20
VICTORIA 73 86 72 86 / 30 60 40 60
LAREDO 75 92 74 91 / 10 10 20 10
ALICE 74 88 73 87 / 10 60 10 20
ROCKPORT 78 86 77 89 / 20 40 30 20
COTULLA 74 90 74 90 / 10 20 20 30
KINGSVILLE 75 87 73 86 / 10 60 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 78 85 77 86 / 20 40 20 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LS/77
AVIATION...AE/82
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