991
FXUS64 KCRP 031127
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
627 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 626 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
- DAILY CHANCES OF RAIN LEADING TO A QUICK DOWNPOUR WITH STRONGEST
STORMS BRINGING RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES
- RIP CURRENT RISK INCREASING THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH INCREASED
CHANCES OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT HIGH TIDE
- MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FROM SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DETACHES FROM THE JET STREAM TODAY AND TRAVERSES
THE BAJA PENINSULA, ALLOWING FOR A JET STREAK TO DEVELOP AND ORIENT
AN EASTERN PACIFIC MOISTURE-AXIS INTO THE BIG BEND AND THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP UPPER-LEVELS MOISTENED WHILE ALLOWING
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
BRINGS A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF.
ADDITIONALLY, AN OPEN WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH WILL MEANDER IN THE
CENTRAL GULF, KEEPING THE MOISTURE FLOW INTO SOUTH TEXAS PLENTIFUL.
DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY ADDITIONAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES, MUCH OF THE
DAILY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FORM OF YOUR TYPICAL POPCORN
STORMS, THOUGH THE SPATIAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE AIDED BY
UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS IN ADDITION TO BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. FOR THIS
REASON, CAM GUIDANCE PAINTS A CONSISTENT PICTURE OF POPCORN
CONVECTION, BUT LACKS THE SKILL TO CORRECTLY GIVE A TIME FRAME AND
LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS. WPC HAS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR THE WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
WITH RESPECT TO TODAY'S PRECIPITATION, AN OVERNIGHT COMPLEX OF
STORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS HAVE BROUGHT AN
OUTFLOW OF WEAKER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH SUNRISE.
IT IS THEN DAYTIME HEATING GETS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXING WITH 2.00-
2.25" PWATS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND DOWN TO 1.75" IN THE
BRUSH COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-1.5
INCHES FOR LOCATIONS THAT SEE STORM ACTIVITY BUT RAINFALL RATES
COULD SURPASS 2"/HR WITH ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES
IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS FOR FLOODING. OTHERWISE, MOST STORMS BEYOND 5 PM
LOOK TO BE ON THE WEAKENING TREND AS DAYTIME HEATING CEASES. WORTH
MONITORING WILL BE THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OFF THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN MEXICO AS THESE MAY BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
LAREDO AREA THOUGH CONFIDENCE AMONGST CAMS FOR THIS MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LOW GIVEN THE DISAGREEMENT OF ANY
CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ECONUS HIGH PRESSURE AND SURFACE
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT BUT STRONG
EASTERLY BREEZE ACROSS GULF-FACING BEACHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
RESULTING IN SURFACE WIND THAT WILL INCREASE THE RIP CURRENT RISK
LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY, LATEST TIDAL
FORECASTS ARE CALLING FOR LOCATIONS LIKE BOB HALL PIER/PORT ARANSAS
TO SEE WATER-LEVELS POSSIBLY REACH 1.5 FT ABOVE MSL AT THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES FRIDAY/SATURDAY. SWELL PERIOD WILL INCREASE TO 7-9 SECONDS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WAVE
ENERGY/TIDAL FORECASTS COULD LEAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THIS
WEEKEND, BUT WITH LACK OF BUOY DATA, THIS WILL BE HARD TO MONITOR
WITH PURE INSTRUMENTS.
THESE DAILY RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ON SUNDAY, THE CUTOFF LOW WILL FILL AS IT GETS REPLACED BY
A DEEPER TROUGH OFF THE US WEST COAST. THIS WILL DIAL DOWN THE
SUBTROPICAL JET AND ALSO DIAL BACK OVERALL RAIN CHANCES. AS A
RESULT, THE LONGTERM FORECAST CALLS FOR THE RETURN OF WIDESPREAD 90S
BY THE UPCOMING WEEK AND THE RETURN OF MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEAT
RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4). AND WE CAN'T FORGET ABOUT DAILY THREATS OF FOG
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
ISOLATED -SHRAS CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTLINE
AND MOVING INLAND THIS MORNING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING AND SPREAD INLAND WITH THE SEA
BREEZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE VCT, ALI AND CRP TAF SITES, AS WELL
AS COT, BUT TO A LESSER EXTENT. LOW RAIN CHANCES EXIST ACROSS LRD
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 TO ADDRESS THE
POTENTIAL. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING, THEN
INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF
THE CONVECTION, VFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRAS, CONDITIONS CAN QUICKLY DETERIORATE
TO MVFR/IFR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BUT
STRONGER AND GUSTY IN AND AROUND STORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
AN EASTERLY GENTLE BREEZE THIS MORNING GIVES WAY TO MORE MODERATE
BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON WITH 2-3 FT SEAS. WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY BY FRIDAY WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 3-5 FT. EXPECT DAILY
RAIN CHANCES CLOSEST TO THE BARRIER ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
WITH THE RECENT RAINS, THE GREEN-UP, AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 45% THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS, THE FIRE RISK IS
LOW. DAILY RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW-MODERATE CHANCES
(20-40%) FOR A WETTING RAIN IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 86 76 87 76 / 60 20 40 10
VICTORIA 87 71 86 72 / 70 30 60 10
LAREDO 91 74 91 74 / 20 20 20 50
ALICE 87 73 87 73 / 70 20 40 0
ROCKPORT 89 78 89 79 / 50 30 30 10
COTULLA 90 73 90 74 / 30 20 20 40
KINGSVILLE 86 74 86 74 / 70 20 30 0
NAVY CORPUS 86 79 86 79 / 50 20 30 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...TE/81
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