423
FXUS64 KCRP 031821
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
121 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 119 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- RIP CURRENT RISK INCREASES THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.
- WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEAT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BEGINNING SUNDAY, PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD, WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO. THIS WILL PROMOTE A PERSISTENT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT, ALLOWING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AND PACIFIC MOISTURE TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS COMBINED WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER
THE GULF WILL ALLOW FOR EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, SUPPORTING AN
INFLUX OF ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH ALL THIS
MOISTURE IN PLAY, PWATS WILL RISE AND GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 1.8-
2.4 INCHES, CREATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCTION AND DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, WHERE ENHANCED
FORCING MAY SUPPORT HIGHER STORM COVERAGE AND AN INCREASED HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT. ELSEWHERE, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OCCURRING FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING, LIKE WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY. GIVEN THE WEAK
STEERING FLOW ALOFT, SOME STORMS MAY BE SLOW-MOVING AND CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HIGHER RAINFALL RATES, WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. WPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT PORTIONS OF OUR AREA IN A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
ALONG THE COAST, PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL ELEVATE SURF AND WAVE
ENERGY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, INCREASING THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY, RISING WATER LEVELS COMBINED WITH INCREASING SWELL
PERIODS OF 7-9 SECONDS COULD RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S, WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN THE 70S. AREAS THAT RECEIVE MORE
PERSISTENT RAINFALL MAY OBSERVE LOCALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. PATCHY
FOG WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND LIGHT WINDS. BY
LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A DEEPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST. AS THIS OCCURS, THE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN. MORE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S
ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH INCREASING HEAT INDICES AND A GROWING
MODERATE HEAT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4).
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND WITH THE
SEA BREEZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE VCT, ALI AND CRP TAF SITES, AS WELL
AS COT, BUT TO A LESSER EXTENT. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN
THIS EVENING, THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND ONCE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION, VFR CIGS AND VSBYS CAN
BE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS CAN QUICKLY DETERIORATE
TO MVFR/IFR IN AND AROUND ANY STORMS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE, BUT, AGAIN, WILL BE STRONGER AND GUSTY IN AND AROUND
ANY STORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
AN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE (BF 3-4) WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SEAS OF 3-5
FEET. WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY FRIDAY NIGHT, INCREASING TO
MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) LEVELS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT DAILY RAIN CHANCES CLOSEST TO THE
BARRIER ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 87 76 87 / 20 40 10 20
VICTORIA 71 86 72 87 / 30 60 10 40
LAREDO 74 91 74 88 / 20 20 50 60
ALICE 73 87 73 87 / 20 40 0 50
ROCKPORT 78 89 79 89 / 30 30 10 10
COTULLA 73 90 74 88 / 20 20 40 60
KINGSVILLE 74 86 74 86 / 20 30 0 40
NAVY CORPUS 79 86 79 87 / 20 30 10 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS/98
AVIATION...KRS/98
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