384
FXUS64 KCRP 041122
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
622 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 611 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
- DAILY CHANCES OF RAIN LEADING TO A QUICK DOWNPOUR WITH STRONGEST
STORMS BRINGING RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2-3 INCHES
- RIP CURRENT RISK INCREASING THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH INCREASED
CHANCES OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT HIGH TIDE
- MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FROM SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
A CUTOFF LOW MOVES OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA TODAY AIMING THE SUB-
TROPICAL JET STREAM RIGHT TOWARDS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE. WHILE THE GREATEST JET-DYNAMICS WILL BE POSITIONED
CLOSER TO THE BIG BEND REGION, MUCH OF TEXAS WILL SEE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A RESULT. AT THE SURFACE, E/SE'LY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED GULF MOISTURE INTO SOUTH TEXAS WITH
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
MOST OF THE SHOWER/STORM INITIATION WILL BE SEA-BREEZE DRIVEN
INITIALLY, ONCE STORMS HAVE FORMED, STORM MOTIONS WILL BE BOUNDARY-
DRIVEN, WHETHER ITS WITH THE SEABREEZE OR WITH COLLIDING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. IN THE VICINITY OF THE STRONGEST STORMS OR AREAS WITH
SLOW-MOVING STORMS, 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE COMMON WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 3 INCHES. SOILS REMAIN SATURATED AND IF
DAILY CHANCES FOR SIMILAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS HOLD TRUE, THEN MORE
EFFICIENT RUNOFF PROCESSES WILL LEAD TO FLASHIER RESPONSES FROM
LOCAL STREAMS AND CREEKS. FOR THIS REASON, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING (LEVEL 1 OF 4) GENERALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF TEXAS. THESE RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY, BUT DROP IN COVERAGE BY SUNDAY.
THE CUTOFF LOW FILLS IN FROM MONDAY ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE GULF TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS LIMITS THE UPPER-LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE INFLUX AND LEADS TO LOW END CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SEABREEZE
STORMS. IT ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO MORE WIDESPREAD
90S, AND CONSEQUENTLY, MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK (LEVEL 2 OF
4) AS HEAT INDICES MAX OUT IN THE 105-110F RANGE BY MID-WEEK.
WITH RESPECT TO THE RIP CURRENT RISK, A PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND IS
INCREASING THE SWELL PERIOD FROM NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AN
INCREASE TO A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TONIGHT WITH CONSIDERATION
OF HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK BY FRIDAY, BUT THIS WILL BE LOOKED INTO FOR
THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH RESPECT TO COASTAL FLOODING, P-ETSS
GUIDANCE FOR ARANSAS PASS SHOWS WATER LEVELS APPROACHING 1.5 FT
ABOVE MSL RIGHT AT THE TIME THAT 8-9 SECOND PERIODS MOVE TOWARD THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. THIS LONG-SWELL ENERGY COMBINED WITH THE HIGH
TIDE CYCLE WILL INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
HIGH TIDES WILL FALL DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING THIS WEEKEND
ALLOWING FOR OPTIMAL TIME TO MONITOR BEACH CAMS PRIOR TO CONSIDERING
THE ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT A FEW TERMINALS (ALI AND COT).
THIS IS EXPECTED TO LAST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE
RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
EXPECTED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION TODAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TAPER OFF AT MOST SITES THIS
EVENING. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
AROUND THE LRD TERMINAL. TONIGHT LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS WILL RETURN
ONCE AGAIN RANGING FROM VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
EXPECT A GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZE TODAY WITH 2-3 FT SEAS.
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY FRIDAY WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 3-
5 FT THROUGH MONDAY. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE
COASTLINE (20-40%) WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED SEA CONDITIONS IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
WITH THE RECENT RAINS, THE GREEN-UP, AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 45% THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS, THE FIRE RISK IS
LOW. DAILY RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW-MODERATE CHANCES
(20-40%) FOR A WETTING RAIN IN THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 86 76 87 76 / 40 10 30 20
VICTORIA 85 72 88 73 / 70 20 30 20
LAREDO 91 74 87 73 / 20 40 50 30
ALICE 87 73 87 74 / 40 10 40 30
ROCKPORT 89 79 89 79 / 40 10 10 20
COTULLA 90 74 87 73 / 10 30 50 60
KINGSVILLE 86 75 86 75 / 40 10 40 20
NAVY CORPUS 86 79 87 79 / 30 10 20 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...NP/92
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