509
FXUS64 KCRP 041815
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
115 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 113 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
- DAILY CHANCES OF RAIN LEADING TO A QUICK DOWNPOUR WITH
STRONGEST STORMS BRINGING RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2-3 INCHES
- RIP CURRENT RISK INCREASING THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH INCREASED
CHANCES OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT HIGH TIDE
- MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) BEGINNING
SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA HAS BEGUN SHIFTING THE
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM TOWARD NORTHERN MEXICO AND ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GULF MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA, WITH PWAT VALUES OF 2+ INCHES
THROUGH SUNDAY. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE INITIATED BY
THE SEABREEZE, BUT MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA WILL
HELP DRIVE THE STORM MOTIONS. THIS MEANS INDIVIDUAL STORM MOTION MAY
SEEM UNUSUAL. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS, WITH 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COMMON AND UP TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST OR SLOWEST-MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE
ARE A LITTLE EXCITED TO POINT OUT THAT WE HAVE SATURATED SOILS, BUT
THIS DOES MEAN THAT FLASH FLOODING IS MORE LIKELY IN STREAMS AND
CREEKS, IN ADDITION TO URBAN AREAS. WPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY, WITH
MOSTLY LOW (10-25%) CHANCES OF SEABREEZE CONVECTION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 90S, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 50% IN THE AFTERNOONS. THIS WILL LEAD TO HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE 105-110 RANGE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THERE
IS A WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEAT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
INCREASING SWELL PERIOD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY
WINDS WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TONIGHT, WITH A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED FRIDAY. HIGHER SWELL PERIODS (8-9
SECONDS), COULD ALSO LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDES WILL FALL DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING THIS
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR OPTIMAL TIME TO MONITOR BEACH CAMS PRIOR TO
CONSIDERING THE ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT TERMINALS AGAIN TODAY, WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION FOR THESE, WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT CRP, ALI, AND VCT
TODAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR COT AND LRD THIS
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TONIGHT, WITH RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISHING AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AS WE APPROACH DAWN, MVFR
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP OVER AREA TERMINALS, IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BY
MIDDAY SATURDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE (BF 2-4) EASTERLY FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN INCREASE TO GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4)
FLOW, WITH PERIODS OF FRESH (BF 5) BREEZES EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS OF
2-3 FEET WILL INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET THROUGH MONDAY. DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE (20-40%) WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED SEA
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 87 76 87 / 10 30 20 30
VICTORIA 72 88 73 87 / 20 30 20 40
LAREDO 74 87 73 92 / 40 50 30 10
ALICE 73 87 74 88 / 10 40 30 30
ROCKPORT 79 89 79 89 / 10 10 20 30
COTULLA 74 87 73 91 / 30 50 60 20
KINGSVILLE 75 86 75 87 / 10 40 20 40
NAVY CORPUS 79 87 79 87 / 10 20 20 30
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LS/77
AVIATION...LS/77
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