994
FXUS64 KCRP 051137
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 635 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
- SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY LEADING TO QUICK, HEAVY
DOWNPOURS
- TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER AND MODERATE HEATRISK BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK SATURDAY/MONITORING COASTAL FLOODING
POTENTIAL
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
LATEST MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN STATES OF MEXICO, BRINGING A DIFFLUENT PATTERN FROM
THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL RANGES AND OUT ONTO THE PLAINS
OF SOUTH TEXAS. THIS HAS ALLOWED QUITE THE CLUSTER OF STORMS ON THE
MEXICAN SIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE. WHERE STORMS HAVE FORMED, ARE WHERE
THEY HAVE REMAINED AS THEIR ISN'T MUCH IN TERMS OF A STEERING
INFLUENCE. PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAIN HAVE RECEIVED SOME
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT, THOUGH THIS REGION HAS BEEN ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE STRATIFORM RAIN. CAMS GENERALLY HAVE THE CLUSTER OF
STORMS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND MORE SO INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY BY SUNRISE.
NEED NOT WORRY IF YOU MISS OUT ON THIS RAIN AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS AFTER 0400 AM AND
CONTINUE MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE MID-MORNING. WITH 2.00-2.30"
PWATS FEEDING IN FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, ANY STRONGER STORM THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF RAINFALL RATES THAT CAN QUICKLY LEAD TO
RUNOFF MOVING RAPIDLY INTO LOCAL STREAMS/CREEKS, AND EVEN QUICKER
STREAM RESPONSES IF A STORM PARKS ITSELF OVER AN AREA TOO LONG. FOR
THIS REASON, WPC HAS KEPT PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.
BY SATURDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW WILL START FILLING IN AND
MOVING TOWARD THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, ALONG WITH THE GREATEST SYNOPTIC-
ASCENT MOTION. CONSEQUENTLY, RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY ITSELF IS
LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS (20-30% CHANCES ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAINS). THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY (30-50% CHANCE). HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE THEN
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE, WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES TREND BACK UP INTO 90S
WITH A MODERATE HEATRISK BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. ALL THAT SAID, AN
ISOLATED SEABREEZE SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT IT WON'T WASH OUT
ANY OUTDOOR PLANS BEYOND AN HOUR. REMEMBER TO KEEP PRACTICING HEAT
SAFETY WHEN OUTDOORS, HYDRATE, AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS.
WITH RESPECT TO BEACH HAZARDS, THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WIND AND AN
INCREASE IN SWELL PERIOD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TODAY THERE WILL BE
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK, WITH SATURDAY SEEING AN INCREASE TO A
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK. ADDITIONALLY, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
LOCAL BEACH CAMS FOR HOW HIGH TIDE ROLLS THE NEXT TWO DAYS. P-ETSS
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HIGH-END OF THE PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
ABOVE 1.5 FT ABOVE MSL FOR THE BOB HALL PIER/ARANSAS PASS TIDE
SENSORS CONCURRENT WITH THE INCREASE IN WAVE ENERGY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
UNDER THE VICINITY OF A STORM REDUCTIONS TO MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED. A
MIXED BAG OF VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WAS ACCOUNTED FOR WITH PROB30 GROUPS. SE WINDS PICK UP TO 10-15
KT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL CREEP IN TONIGHT ONCE AGAIN
LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH 3-4 FT SEAS.
THESE INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND 4-5 FT ON
SUNDAY. EXPECT LOW-END (20-40% CHANCE) DAILY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
WITH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AND RECENT RAINFALL OVER
THE LAST FEW WEEKS, THE GREEN-UP CONTINUES. COMBINED WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 45%, THE FIRE RISK WILL
REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 87 77 88 78 / 40 30 20 10
VICTORIA 86 73 86 75 / 50 30 50 10
LAREDO 88 74 93 76 / 50 30 0 0
ALICE 87 74 88 75 / 50 40 10 10
ROCKPORT 89 79 89 81 / 20 30 30 20
COTULLA 87 73 91 76 / 60 40 10 10
KINGSVILLE 87 75 88 77 / 40 30 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 87 79 88 81 / 40 30 20 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ345-442-443-447.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...NP/92
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