021
FXUS64 KCRP 052317
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
617 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 457 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
THE MAIN UPDATE WAS THAT WPC HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS/BRUSH COUNTRY UNDER A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR
FLASH FLOODING. STORMS THAT WOULD BE CAPABLE ARE ALREADY MOVING
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, TROPICAL FUNNELS
CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED AS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL WARNINGS.
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 614 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
- SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY LEADING TO QUICK, HEAVY
DOWNPOURS
- TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER AND MODERATE HEATRISK BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK SATURDAY/MONITORING COASTAL FLOODING
POTENTIAL
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
A CUTOFF LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST,
SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION EAST WITH IT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
BRUSH COUNTRY, THEN MOVE TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE, ALONG
THE COASTAL COUNTIES, MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LEADING TO CONVECTION.
LOW TO MEDIUM (15-40%) RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY. PWAT VALUES ARE STILL ABOVE 2 INCHES, WHICH
MEANS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD PRODUCE UP TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES. WPC HAS
MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY.
RAIN CHANCES FINALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
CUTOFF LOW FILLS IN AND MOVES TOWARD THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, DROPPING
FROM A 20-50% CHANCE TO A LESS THAN 15% CHANCE, THOUGH SEABREEZE
CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE IN
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 90S, WITH
A MODERATE HEAT RISK EXPECTED EACH DAY. REMEMBER TO KEEP PRACTICING
HEAT SAFETY WHEN OUTDOORS, HYDRATE, AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS.
MANY FOLKS WILL WANT TO HEAD TO THE BEACH THIS WEEKEND BUT THERE ARE
SOME PARTICULAR HAZARDS FOR THE BEACHES. LONG PERIOD SWELL AND
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS. THESE CONDITIONS COULD ALSO LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDES. BEACHGOERS SHOULD USE CAUTION
WHEN ENTERING THE WATERS AND PAY ATTENTION TO THE TIDAL LEVELS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PRIMARILY LOCATED ACROSS
THE BRUSH COUNTRY W OF KALI. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY BECOMING
SCATTERED IN THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS
WILL BRING REDUCTIONS IN VIS/CIGS IN A STORM. OTHERWISE, MVFR CIGS
RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AFTER 18Z FRIDAY
ALONG WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH 3-4 FT SEAS.
THESE INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND 4-5 FT ON
SUNDAY. EXPECT LOW-END (20-40% CHANCE) DAILY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 88 79 88 / 30 20 10 20
VICTORIA 74 86 75 88 / 40 50 20 30
LAREDO 75 94 77 95 / 10 0 10 0
ALICE 75 89 76 90 / 40 20 0 10
ROCKPORT 79 89 81 90 / 40 30 20 20
COTULLA 73 93 76 94 / 30 0 10 0
KINGSVILLE 75 88 77 88 / 30 20 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 80 87 81 88 / 30 20 20 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ345-442-443-447.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LS/77
AVIATION...AE/82
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