806
FXUS64 KCRP 060621
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
121 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 114 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
- SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY LEADING TO QUICK, HEAVY
DOWNPOURS
- TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER AND MODERATE HEATRISK BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK SATURDAY/MONITORING COASTAL FLOODING
POTENTIAL
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
THE CUTOFF LOW THAT HAS MOVED NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION IS CONTINUING
TO FILL AS TRANSITIONS MORE INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS IS LEADING TO A STREAK OF VORTICITY WRAPPING
INTO THE MID-LEVEL LOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF AND INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS. ADDITIONALLY, A 300 HPA JET-STREAK IS AIDING IN THE UPPER-
LEVEL DYNAMICS TO KEEPING A MOIST-PROFILE ACROSS MOST OF TEXAS (AS
SEEN FROM THE TROPICAL-LIKE 00Z JUNE 6TH SOUNDING FROM KCRP). CAMS
HAVE PICKED ON THIS FOCUSED AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE BY KEEPING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OFF THE GULF WATERS AND MOVING
NORTH INTO THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA (AND EVEN GREATER CHANCES OF
STORMS BETWEEN VICTORIA/HOUSTON METRO. GENERAL TIMEFRAME FOR THESE
STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 3AM-NOON TODAY. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH
TEXAS, RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH GREATLY AND IS LOOKING TO REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY. WPC'S RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS GREATEST CLOSER TO THE
SHORTWAVE AXIS/NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH AND AREA OF MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES INTO THE REGION, DRAMATICALLY REDUCING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, BUT THEY REMAIN NON-ZERO. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM FROM THE DAILY BREEZE CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
THOUGH IT WON'T BE QUITE THE GULLYWASHER AS IN PREVIOUS WEEKS. THAT
SAID, WHAT WILL BE OF GREATER CONCERN IN THIS DRIER WEEK AHEAD WILL
BE THE HEATRISK. WITH 105-110F HEAT INDICES BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
IN THE UPCOMING WEEK SO WILL THE MODERATE HEATRISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4)
WITH SPLOTCHES OF MAJOR HEATRISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) IN THE LATTER-HALF
OF THE WEEK.
WITH RESPECT TO THE BEACH HAZARDS, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A HIGH
RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND INCREASED LONG PERIOD SWELL INCREASE TODAY.
THERE IS STILL LOW-CONFIDENCE ON MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TODAY WITH
THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. IF THE WATER LEVEL REACH THE VICINITY OF THE
DUNES, IT WILL LIKELY BE SHORT IN DURATION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR ANY ADVISORY ISSUANCES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
VFR TO MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT GENERALLY DUE
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTH. CIGS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING RETURNING TO
PREDOMINATELY VFR. VCT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
PROB30S WERE MAINTAINED THIS CYCLE THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD CLEAR
OUT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
A GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE TODAY WILL INCREASE TO MORE MODERATE
TO FRESH (BF 4-5) STARTING TONIGHT. SEAS NEAR 3 FT TODAY WILL
INCREASE TO 4-5 FT TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES (20-40% CHANCE) WILL BE GREATEST NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI BAY
AND ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS TODAY AND THEN ACROSS THE COASTAL
BEND SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
THANKS TO THE RAINFALLS IN MAY, THE GREEN-UP CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. THIS AND IN COMBINATION WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
REMAINING ABOVE 40% WILL KEEP THE FIRE RISK LOW. RAIN CHANCES TODAY
WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS (30-50% CHANCE).
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN LIMITING THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK, WITH JUST SHORT-LIVED, ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 88 79 88 79 / 20 10 20 10
VICTORIA 86 75 88 76 / 50 20 30 10
LAREDO 94 77 95 77 / 0 10 0 0
ALICE 89 76 90 77 / 20 0 10 10
ROCKPORT 89 81 90 81 / 30 20 20 20
COTULLA 93 76 94 76 / 0 10 0 0
KINGSVILLE 88 77 88 78 / 20 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 87 81 88 82 / 20 20 20 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ345-442-443-
447.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...NP/92
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