017
FXUS64 KCRP 070735
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
235 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 234 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
- DRIER PERIOD FROM SUNDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH MODERATE
HEATRISK BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD.
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN
SEEING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT HIGH TIDE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
RESULTING IN A SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAK REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS AND COASTAL TROUGHING EXTENDING
FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS KEEPING PWATS NEAR 2.00-2.25". THIS WILL
KEEP 30-50% RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LITTLE IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE STORMS. THIS SHOULDN'T BE A WASH OUT
BUT WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. OVERNIGHT, THIS BROAD
AREA OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HRRR SHOWING
MORE CONVECTIVE STORMS MONDAY MORNING WITH A POSSIBLE
OUTFLOW/SEABREEZE PUSHING RAIN CHANCES INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK INTO THE 90S AND IN THE LOW 100S ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS/NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY BY THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AS SUCH, THE MODERATE HEAT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK (LEVEL
3 OF 4) SHOWING UP FROM THURSDAY.
WITH RESPECT TO THE RIP CURRENT RISK, PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
AND INCREASED SWELL PERIODS WILL KEEP THE RISK AT HIGH, THOUGH BY
TUESDAY, WINDS DECREASE ALLOWING FOR THE RISK TO BE MORE ON THE
MODERATE SIDE. WITH RESPECT TO COASTAL FLOODING, IT STILL LOOKS
MARGINAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. AT WORST, IT LOOKS LIKE
MOTORISTS MAY BRIEFLY SEE TIGHTER BEACH ROADS ALONG THE DUNES, BUT
THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
OVERNIGHT STORMS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY HAVE DECREASED AND FIZZLED
OUT. A SCATTER OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH 14Z AND THEN
RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF A SHOWER, THOUGH COASTAL
TERMINALS MAY SEE THE MVFR CIGS LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. PROB30
GROUPS WERE ADDED FOR TERMINALS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS FOR
STRATIFORM RAIN REDUCING CIGS AND VIS IN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES (BF 4-5) AND 4-5 FT
SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. SCEC CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY MAINLY IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. 30-50%
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATEST ALONG THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
THANKS TO THE RAINFALLS IN MAY, THE GREEN-UP CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. THIS AND IN COMBINATION WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
REMAINING ABOVE 40% WILL KEEP THE FIRE RISK LOW. RAIN CHANCES TODAY
WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS (30-50% CHANCE) AND
INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN
LIMITING THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH
JUST SHORT-LIVED, ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOONS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SEA BREEZE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 88 80 88 79 / 30 30 50 0
VICTORIA 87 77 89 75 / 30 10 20 0
LAREDO 95 77 94 77 / 0 0 20 0
ALICE 90 77 90 77 / 20 10 40 0
ROCKPORT 89 82 90 81 / 30 20 30 0
COTULLA 96 77 94 76 / 0 0 20 10
KINGSVILLE 88 78 88 77 / 20 20 50 0
NAVY CORPUS 87 82 88 82 / 40 30 50 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ345-442-443-
447.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...AE/82
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