206
FXUS64 KCRP 080642
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
142 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 140 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
- SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY WILL TREND DRIER THROUGH
SATURDAY
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEK
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY DROPPING TO A MODERATE RISK TUESDAY
- LOW CONFIDENCE IN INCREASED SEABREEZE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE IN SURF CONDITIONS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
THE LAST BITS OF DIMINISHING SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAK COMBINED WITH A
SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL BRING ONE
LAST BOUT OF 30-50% CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTH
TEXAS. FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE, SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG
THE COASTAL PLAINS, BUT BY THIS AFTERNOON, ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND SEABREEZE WILL PUSH THESE RAIN CHANCES INLAND INTO THE BRUSH
COUNTRY. WITH PWATS ALREADY BACK TO ~2.30 INCHES FROM THE 00Z 8 JUNE
KCRP SOUNDING, THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED TO DROP A QUICK 1-3 INCHES
OF RAINFALL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. IT'LL BE WORTH MONITORING FOR
ANY SLOW-MOVING/TRAINING STORMS OVER SATURATED SOILS, ALLOWING FOR
QUICK PONDING/LOCALIZED FLOODING, THOUGH THIS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED
IN NATURE.
MOVING FORWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
REALLY DIMINISHING OUR RAIN CHANCES (THOUGH REMAINING NON-ZERO AND
PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE SEABREEZE, MEANING SHORT-LIVED, WEAKER
SHOWERS/STORMS). THE MAIN HAZARD THEN SHIFTS TO THE HEATRISK WHICH
WILL BE A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. HEAT
INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 100-110F THIS WEEK. THOSE ON THE HIGHER END
OF THAT RANGE WILL SEE SCATTERED AREAS OF A MAJOR HEATRISK (LEVEL 3
OF 4). BY THIS WEEKEND, A PLUME OF TROPICAL-MOISTURE MOVES AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR 10-30%
CHANCES OF SHOWERS, ALLOWING THE SEABREEZE TO HAVE MORE SCATTERED
SEABREEZE CONVECTION AND EXTRA MOISTURE TO WRING OUT. CONFIDENCE
THIS FAR OUT IS LOW FOR ANY AMOUNTS, BUT FOR THOSE HEADING OUT TO
THE BEACH, ALWAYS HAVE A PLAN TO QUICKLY GO INTO YOUR
VEHICLE/INDOORS TO WAIT OUT THE SHOWER/STORM. SPEAKING OF BEACH...
WHILE THE SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WE SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF FRESH BREEZES FINALLY LOWERING THE RIP
CURRENT RISK TO A MODERATE RISK BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST
RISK FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING HAS PAST FOR THE FULL MOON
INFLUENCE. THAT SAID, THE NEW MOON ARRIVES NEXT SUNDAY, AND WITH THE
LATEST MODELS AND WAVE HEIGHT/PERIOD FOR THAT TIME PERIOD, MESSAGING
MAY INCREASE AGAIN FOR RIP CURRENT/MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MONITORING
IN THE LATTER-HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
CURRENTLY A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH
MAINLY MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS IS FORECAST AGAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AND HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30S AND
VCTS AS CHANCES REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE ACROSS EACH TERMINAL WITH
REDUCED VSBYS IN AND AROUND STORMS. A DIURNAL FLOW IS EXPECTED
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25KT. DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT TAF CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING AND
THEN SPREADING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC UNDER A STRONG THUNDERSTORM, OTHERWISE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WOULD BE THE GREATEST THREAT. WE THEN TREND DRIER THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST AT MODERATE TO FRESH
(BF 4-5) STRENGTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH 3-5 FT SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
TODAY, MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST MOVE INLAND
INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN WETTING RAIN
DIRECTLY UNDER STORMS. RAIN CHANCES THEN BECOME LOW-END CHANCES
(LESS THAN 15%) THROUGH SATURDAY. DUE TO THE RECENT-GREEN UP
COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GREATER THAN 40%, THE
FIRE RISK REMAINS LOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 88 79 89 79 / 50 10 10 0
VICTORIA 88 75 91 75 / 30 0 0 10
LAREDO 94 77 96 76 / 30 0 0 0
ALICE 89 77 91 75 / 40 10 0 0
ROCKPORT 89 81 90 81 / 30 0 10 10
COTULLA 94 77 95 75 / 40 10 0 0
KINGSVILLE 88 78 89 77 / 40 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 88 82 88 82 / 30 0 10 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ345-442-443-
447.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...BF/80
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