141
FXUS61 KCTP 141630
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1130 AM EST THU NOV 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
*CLOUDY WITH LIGHT RAIN SLOWLY SPREADING FROM SW TO NE; LITTLE
TO NO RAINFALL EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER
*TURNING BREEZY, DRYING OUT AND TRENDING MILDER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE SPREAD RISK
*PASSING RAIN SHOWER POSSIBLE ON MONDAY; OTHERWISE CONTINUED
SEASONABLY MILD AND DRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
16Z MRMS SHOWS LIGHT RAIN MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT MIDDAY. HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
A RATHER SLOW ADVANCE TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
BEFORE RAIN TAPERS OFF AND SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH THE
BEST FORCING. EXPECT CLOUDS ALONG WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN,
DRIZZLE, AND FOG TO LINGER OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES.
A CHILLY, RAIN-COOLED DAY WITH MAX TEMPS 40-50F. EVAP COOLING
AND A SOUTHEAST BREEZE BUFFETING THE WESTERN RIDGETOPS (25-30
MPH GUSTS) WILL MAKE IT FEEL PRETTY RAW. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT FAVORS TRENDING MIN TEMPS ABOVE BASE NBM.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTHERN PA SHOULD TAPER OFF
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z FRIDAY, AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ARRIVES BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW. HOWEVER, A TRAILING
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN STUBBORN STRATOCU, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU DUE TO AN UPSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW. BASED ON
MODEL RH PROFILES, WE HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AREAWIDE
COMPARED TO NBM GUIDANCE.
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE IS NOT VERY COLD FOR
MID NOVEMBER. LATEST GEFS 2M TEMP ANOMALIES SUPPORT HIGHS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE (50-55F) FRIDAY, DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDINESS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GRT LKS SHOULD SUPPLY FAIR
WEATHER SATURDAY. HOWEVER, MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION COULD RESULT IN
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WHERE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ASCENDS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. MIXING DOWN
PROGGED 900MB TEMPS OF 4-6C YIELDS EXPECTED HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 50F OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE N MTNS/LAURELS, TO
AROUND 60F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO PASS NORTH OF US SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE AS A RESULT, BUT GIVEN
HOW DRY THE AIRMASS WILL BE POPS HAVE BEEN CAPPED NEAR 30% AND
ARE ONLY PRESENT ACROSS THE NW WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PROVIDING FAIR AND TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN BUILDING IN AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WILL MODERATE AND BECOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
GIVEN RELATIVELY WARM 850MB TEMPS ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL PERSIST FOR TUE AND WED GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE SURFACE LOWS POSITION OFF TO OUR WEST.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND COULD BE THE FIRST SIGNAL FOR A PATTERN
CHANGE ACROSS THE REGION TO BECOME MORE COLD AND SEASONABLE.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WITH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THAT WILL LIKELY
PROGRESS NORTH EASTWARD INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENT
GUIDANCE HAS A DEEP SURFACE LOW SPINNING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING IN OUR FIRST
WAVE OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR FOR THE SEASON.
AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. LLWS WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE AIRSPACE TODAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. LLWS WILL TAPER OFF EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD. CIGS AND VSBY
VALUES WILL LOWER TODAY IN THE RAIN, BUT IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL
HOURS, GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (80%) IN
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WITH LOW
CEILINGS AND STRATIFORM RAIN.
WHILE MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL OVER BY FRIDAY MORNING, LOWER
CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...IFR CIGS RISING TO MVFR CIGS JST/BFD. MVFR CIGS AOO/UNV.
VFR ELSEWHERE.
SUN...IFR JST EARLY. OTHERWISE, VFR.
SUN NIGHT-MON...CFROPA. MVFR CIGS/VIS IN -SHRA, MAINLY NW HALF.
FIRE WEATHER
A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE UPSTREAM HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD RESULT IN WIND
GUSTS SAT AFTERNOON IN THE 20-25MPH RANGE OVER THE EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA PER LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THE WINDS,
COMBINED WITH RH VALUES DIPPING TO NEAR 30PCT AND VERY DRY FINE
FUELS, WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK OF WILDFIRE
SPREAD.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...MARTIN/BOWEN
FIRE WEATHER...FITZGERALD
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