808
FXUS61 KCTP 141950
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
250 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
*CLOUDY WITH LIGHT RAIN SLOWLY SPREADING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES
THIS EVENING; LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF
THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER
*TURNING BREEZY, DRYING OUT AND TRENDING MILDER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE SPREAD RISK PEAKING ON SATURDAY
*PASSING RAIN SHOWER POSSIBLE ON MONDAY; OTHERWISE CONTINUED
SEASONABLY MILD AND DRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
19-20Z MRMS SHOWS LIGHT RAIN APPROACHING HGR/UNV/BFD LINE.
HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A RATHER SLOW ADVANCE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE RAIN GRADUALLY TAPERS
OFF AND [MAX POP] SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH THE BEST
LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING UPPER LOW. EXPECT
CLOUDS ALONG WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN, DRIZZLE, AND FOG TO
LINGER OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES WHERE WINDS DROP OFF THE NEARLY
CALM AND RH REMAINS >90%. THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT FAVORS TRENDING MIN TEMPS ABOVE BASELINE NBM PRINTING
LOWS IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO NEAR 40F IN THE SOUTHERN TIER
ALONG THE MD LINE (+5-10F ABOVE CLIMO).
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DZ/FOG OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
ALLEGHENIES SHOULD DISSIPATE FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, A
TRAILING INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STUBBORN STRATOCU/LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU DUE TO AN UPSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW.
CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK FOR SOME SUN BY THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE
MTNS THANKS TO A DRIER/DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST BREEZE. HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER VS. THURSDAY WITH MAXES
GENERALLY ABOVE THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S RANGE. LOW CLOUD HANG TOUGH OVER THE
WESTERN ALLEGHENIES AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT. AN ACTIVE
NW BREEZE FAVORS MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NBM AND CLIMO.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GRT LKS SHOULD SUPPLY FAIR
WEATHER SATURDAY. HOWEVER, MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION COULD RESULT IN
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WHERE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ASCENDS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. MIXING DOWN
PROGGED 900MB TEMPS OF 4-6C YIELDS EXPECTED HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 50F OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE N MTNS/LAURELS, TO
AROUND 60F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH WIND GUSTS
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE.
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN THE ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WX WATCH FOR THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY - WHICH MATCHES UP WELL
WITH PA DCNR/BOF CATEGORICAL VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER RISK.
FROSTY START TO SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 25-35F RANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE DOME MIGRATES OVER CENTRAL PA ON SUNDAY PROVIDING A
MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT END TO THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID
NOVEMBER.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO PASS NORTH OF US SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE AS A RESULT, BUT GIVEN
HOW DRY THE AIRMASS WILL BE POPS HAVE BEEN CAPPED NEAR 30% AND
ARE ONLY PRESENT ACROSS THE NW WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PROVIDING FAIR AND TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN BUILDING IN AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WILL MODERATE AND BECOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
GIVEN RELATIVELY WARM 850MB TEMPS ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL PERSIST FOR TUE AND WED GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE SURFACE LOWS POSITION OFF TO OUR WEST.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND COULD BE THE FIRST SIGNAL FOR A PATTERN
CHANGE ACROSS THE REGION TO BECOME MORE COLD AND SEASONABLE.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WITH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THAT WILL LIKELY
PROGRESS NORTH EASTWARD INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENT
GUIDANCE HAS A DEEP SURFACE LOW SPINNING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING IN OUR FIRST
WAVE OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR FOR THE SEASON.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. LLWS WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE AIRSPACE TODAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. LLWS WILL TAPER OFF EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD. CIGS AND VSBY
VALUES WILL LOWER TODAY IN THE RAIN, BUT IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL
HOURS, GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (80%) IN
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WITH LOW
CEILINGS AND STRATIFORM RAIN.
WHILE MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL OVER BY FRIDAY MORNING, LOWER
CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...IFR CIGS RISING TO MVFR CIGS JST/BFD. MVFR CIGS AOO/UNV.
VFR ELSEWHERE.
SUN...IFR JST EARLY. OTHERWISE, VFR.
SUN NIGHT-MON...CFROPA. MVFR CIGS/VIS IN -SHRA, MAINLY NW HALF.
FIRE WEATHER
A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE UPSTREAM HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD RESULT IN WIND
GUSTS SAT AFTERNOON IN THE 20-25MPH RANGE OVER THE EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA PER LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THE WINDS,
COMBINED WITH RH VALUES DIPPING TO NEAR 30PCT AND VERY DRY FINE
FUELS, WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK OF WILDFIRE
SPREAD.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...MARTIN/BOWEN
FIRE WEATHER...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
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