191
FXUS61 KCTP 151609
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1109 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
*GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH TONIGHT; BEST VIEWING OF THE SUPER
BEAVER MOON & ISS FLYOVER = AREAS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS
*DRY, BREEZY, AND MILDER START TO THE WEEKEND WITH AN ELEVATED
WILDFIRE SPREAD RISK PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
*CONTINUED SEASONABLY MILD AND DRY THROUGH TUESDAY; NEXT
RAINFALL LIKELY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/
VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW LOW CLOUDS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE LATE THIS MORNING;
MEANWHILE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING IS DETECTED OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA PARTICULARLY IN
LANCASTER COUNTY.
ON BALANCE, THE OVERALL SKY TREND WILL BE TOWARD PARTIAL/GRADUAL
CLEARING ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THANKS
TO A DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST BREEZE. CONVERSELY, THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ASCENDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN FAVORS CLOUDY SKIES INTO
TONIGHT OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
MAX TEMPS TODAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S OR NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE (+1-5F) DAILY CLIMO.
SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES AND
LAUREL HIGHLANDS TONIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER (SCT-BKN)
FURTHER EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GRT LKS SHOULD SUPPLY FAIR
WEATHER SATURDAY. HOWEVER, MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION COULD RESULT IN
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WHERE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ASCENDS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU.
VERTICAL MIXING UP TO BETWEEN 2.5-3 KFT AGL SATURDAY WITH
PROGGED 900MB TEMPS OF 4-6C YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM
AROUND 50F OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE N MTNS/LAURELS, TO
AROUND 60F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
A MODERATELY TIGHT LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT ACCENTUATED BY LARGER
SCALE DESCENT WITHIN THE THERMALLY INDIRECT/RIGHT EXIT REGION
OF AN 80KT NW JET MAX WILL LEAD TO PEAK NW WIND GUSTS IN THE 25
TO 30 MPH RANGE ON SATURDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE RESULT AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY - WHICH MATCHES UP WELL
WITH PA DCNR/BOF CATEGORICAL VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER RISK.
LOOK FOR A FROSTY START TO SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 25-35F
RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE DOME MIGRATES OVER CENTRAL PA ON SUNDAY
PROVIDING A MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT END TO THE WEEKEND WITH
LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO PASS NORTH OF US SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE AS A RESULT, BUT GIVEN
HOW DRY THE AIRMASS WILL BE POPS HAVE BEEN CAPPED NEAR 30% AND
ARE ONLY PRESENT ACROSS THE NW WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PROVIDING FAIR AND TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN BUILDING IN AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WILL MODERATE AND BECOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
GIVEN RELATIVELY WARM 850MB TEMPS ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL PERSIST FOR TUE AND WED GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE SURFACE LOWS POSITION OFF TO OUR WEST.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND COULD BE THE FIRST SIGNAL FOR A PATTERN
CHANGE ACROSS THE REGION TO BECOME MORE COLD AND SEASONABLE.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WITH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THAT WILL LIKELY
PROGRESS NORTH EASTWARD INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENT
GUIDANCE HAS A DEEP SURFACE LOW SPINNING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING IN OUR FIRST
WAVE OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR FOR THE SEASON.
AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH (90%) IN LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY AT JST AND BFD, WITH LOW CIGS AS WELL AS
MORNING FOG. AOO AND UNV WILL SEE SUB IFR CONDS THROUGH AT LEAST
17Z, AND POTENTIALLY AS LONG AS 20-23Z. THE EASTERN TERMINALS
(IPT/MDT/LNS) WILL STAY OUT OF IFR, BUT TEMPO MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT IPT AND MDT. -DZ IS EXPECTED PERIODICALLY UNTIL
MID- MORNING AT JST/AOO/UNV. CROSS-LAKE FLOW THEN REINFORCES THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRI NIGHT, AND COULD EVEN TAKE IPT BACK TO
MVFR AFTER 08Z SAT.
THE NW WIND ABOVE THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION INCREASES AGAIN FRI
EVENING AND LASTS INTO MID-DAY SAT, BRINGING ABOUT SOME WEAK
LLWS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THE SIGNAL IS STRONGEST
OVER THE SRN, ESP 2 SERN TERMINALS, WHERE A TIGHT GRADIENT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND THE HIGH MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST. SAT AFTN SFC GUSTS INTO THE M20S AT MDT AND LNS. MVFR
CIGS STAY IN FOR THE NW UNTIL SAT AM, THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
(EVERYWHERE) AS HIGH PRESSURE FLOATS OVERHEAD.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...IFR BFD/JST EARLY. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE DAY.
SUN PM-MON AM...CFROPA. MVFR CIGS/VIS IN -SHRA, MAINLY N HALF.
MON PM-TUES...NW FLOW. IFR/MVFR CIGS NW, VFR SE.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY (MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON) OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA DUE TO A COMBINATION OF GUSTY
WINDS 25-35 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
(25-35%) AND DRY FUELS.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ051>053-057>059-066.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/BAUCO
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...DANGELO/COLBERT
FIRE WEATHER...STEINBUGL
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