880
FXUS61 KCTP 151926
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
226 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
*MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH LIMITED VIEWING OF THE SUPER
BEAVER MOON & ISS FLYOVER
*DRY, BREEZY, AND MILDER START TO THE WEEKEND WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING AND ELEVATED WILDFIRE SPREAD RISK IN EAST CENTRAL PA
*CONTINUED MILD AND DRY THROUGH TUESDAY; NEXT RAINFALL LIKELY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODEL DATA HAVE TRENDED DECIDEDLY
BEARISH ON ANY CLEARING THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
THEREFORE, WE RAMPED UP SKY COVER AND ADDED A FEW MORE DEGREES
TO MIN TEMPS. UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE ALLEGHENY
MTNS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE COULD PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG PARTICULARLY ON
THE RIDGETOPS. LOWS IN THE 35-45F RANGE ARE +5-10F ABOVE CLIMO
FOR MID NOVEMBER.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CLOUDY TREND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND - ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED
WITH 1020MB HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING EASTWARD INTO PA. MAX TEMPS
TREND +3 TO +10F WARMER VS. FRIDAY WITH FCST HIGHS IN THE 45-60F
RANGE. THE DAY/DAY WARMUP WILL BE TEMPERED TO SOME EXTENT BY A
GUSTY WIND FROM THE NORTHWEST 25-35 MPH. SEE FIRE WX SECTION FOR
LATEST THINKING CONCERNING FWW/RFW/SPS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
AXIS MIGRATES OVER CENTRAL PA ON SUNDAY PROVIDING A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT END TO THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHTER
WINDS. HIGHS IN THE 50-60F RANGE REMAIN +5-10F ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR MID NOVEMBER.
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
AND TRIGGER SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE CLOSE
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE NY BORDER. RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT
RETURNS FOR THE REST OF MONDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
MILDER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 55-65F RANGE (+10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE).
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PROVIDING FAIR AND TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN BUILDING IN AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WILL MODERATE AND BECOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
GIVEN RELATIVELY WARM 850MB TEMPS ALOFT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL PERSIST FOR TUE AND WED GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
SURFACE LOWS POSITION OFF TO OUR WEST. IN SPITE OF THE RAIN
CHANCES, IT MAY BE A GOOD IDEA TO CONSIDER TAKING CARE OF ANY
LINGERING OUTDOOR PROJECTS (YARDWORK, HOLIDAY DECORATIONS, ETC.)
PRIOR TO A BIG PATTERN CHANGE THAT WILL ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY.
BY LATER WEDNESDAY, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A
PATTERN FLIP FOR THE EASTERN US. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH A DEEP CLOSED LOW
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST
SOMETIME IN THE LATER WEDNESDAY - EARLY THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.
LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE SWIRLING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SUCH A
PATTERN WOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER THAN NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN AWHILE WITH A TRUE CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION. PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM GREAT LAKES WATERS WOULD SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE TYPICAL FAVORED REGIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PA.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH (90%) IN LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY AT JST AND BFD. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW LONG THE
1/4 SM VSBY REMAINS AT JST. WINDS HAVE VEERED AROUND TO BECOME
NW, WHICH MAY HELP THE VSBY TREND UP TO A MILE OR MORE BY 19-20Z,
BUT CAN'T RULE OUT THAT LOWER VSBY CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH CIGS BEING SO LOW.
CIGS AT UNV REMAIN IFR, WITH LOW END MVFR / HIGH END IFR AT AOO.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 20-23Z BEFORE SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT. THE EASTERN TERMINALS (IPT/MDT/LNS) WILL STAY OUT
OF IFR, BUT TEMPO MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT IPT, MDT, AND LNS.
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WILL REINFORCE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TONIGHT, AND COULD TAKE IPT, MDT, AND LNS BACK TO MVFR AFTER
07Z SAT (LOWER CHANCES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST).
THE NW WIND ABOVE THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING, BRINGING ABOUT SOME WEAK LLWS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT. THE SIGNAL IS STRONGEST OVER MDT/LNS, WHERE A TIGHT
GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND THE HIGH MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL DISSIPATE SAT MORNING AS
TURBULENT EDDIES BRING WIND GUSTS DOWN TO THE SFC. EXPECT SAT
AFTN SFC GUSTS INTO THE M20S AT MDT AND LNS. CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR IN THE NW SAT AM, THEN FINALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AT JST AND
BFD AROUND 17-20Z SAT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...MAINLY VFR.
SUN NIGHT - EARLY MON...CFROPA. MVFR CIGS/VIS IN -SHRA, MAINLY
N HALF.
MON PM-TUES...NW FLOW. IFR/MVFR CIGS NW, VFR SE.
WED...RESTRICTIONS POSS, MAINLY NW. MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
WITH RAIN AND LLWS WED NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY (MID
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON) OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA -- DUE TO A COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS
25-35 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY (<40%) AND
DRY FUELS. THE LACK OF CURING TODAY COMBINED WITH AN UPTICK IN
MINRH HAS LEAD US TO HOLD OFF ON UPGRADING TO RFW OR EXPANDING
THE FWW. COORDINATION CONSENSUS WITH FIRE PARTNERS SUPPORTS
RIDING THE WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY (IN LIEU OF CANCELING AND
ISSUING SPS).
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ051>053-057>059-066.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...BANGHOFF/BOWEN
AVIATION...DANGELO/COLBERT
FIRE WEATHER...STEINBUGL
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