809
FXUS61 KCTP 200045
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
745 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
* QUICK-HITTING, PLOWABLE/LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING.
* ARCTIC BLAST DELIVERS BITTER TO EXTREME COLD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY
* DEEP FREEZE ENDS LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING
CLOSER TO THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE FOR LATE JANUARY BY NEXT
WEEKEND
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/
STICKING A FORK IN THE SNOW. LATEST OBS AND RADAR LOOP SHOWING A
RAPID DECREASE IN SNOW INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. ONLY PLACE TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO FOR THE NEXT 12 HRS
IS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. LONG BAND OFF LE IS HEADED RIGHT INTO
SOMERSET COUNTY. PROGS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SIMILAR BANDS THRU
THE NIGHT. HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM WARNING THERE THRU
MID-MORNING. MAY BREAK CAMBRIA OFF FROM THE GOING ADVY TO ALSO
CONTINUE IT THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. BUT, THE MAJORITY OF MESO
MODELS KEEP THE BEST SNOW TO THE S OF JST. ELSEWHERE, LESS THAN
AN INCH OF ACCUM SHOULD HAPPEN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO LET THE BULK OF THE REMAINING ADVY AND ALL OF
THE WARNING FOR THE SE GO AT IT'S NATURAL 03Z EXP TIME. SOME LES
SHOULD SNEAK INTO WARREN CO, AND NRN MCKEAN CO, BUT ACCUMS
SHOULD BE LIGHT (1-3" AT MOST). TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK, AND WIND
TICKS UPWARD LATER TONIGHT. THESE ARE ALL GOOD SIGNS FOR THE
COLD WX ADVY TO START LATER TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ADDED SCHUYLKILL CO TO THE COLD WEATHER ADVY FOR MON NIGHT INTO
WED AM PERIOD IN COLLABORATION WITH PHI.
FORECAST IS STILL AS COLD AS IT WAS EARLIER. NO CHANGES THERE.
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC BEFORE BUILDING
INTO PA. WIND IS GOING TO KNOCK THE WIND CHILLS DOWN WELL
BELOW ZERO IN THE NW HALF OF THE CWA (ALLEGHENIES AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS) BY MORNING, WITH MANY PLACES BWTEEN -5 AND -10F THRU
THE DAY. SO, STARTING THE COLD WX ADVYS IN THE MORNING AND
CARRYING THEM THRU THE DAY IS A GOOD STRATEGY. MAX TEMPS 10-20F
WILL EASILY BE THE COLDEST OF THE YEAR (BFD COLDEST ONLY 17F
THUS FAR - AND THEY SHOULD ONLY GET TO 10F MONDAY.)
LES SHOULD STAY CLOSE TO THE LAKE AND MOSTLY N OF PA. STILL HAVE
SOME MINOR ACCUMS THERE, BUT WE SHOULD STILL BE OK WITHOUT AN
ADVY IS THE FAR NW.
SIMILAR STORY FOR MON NIGHT, WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST READINGS
OF THE SEASON (BFD DID GET TO -2F JUST BEFORE CHRISTMAS). BUT,
MOST OF PA HASN'T SEEN NEGATIVE F TEMPS FOR MUCH LONGER. ANY
REMAINING LES MON AFTN SHOULD LIFT N AND OUT OF THE CWA IN THE
EARLY EVENING. CLOUDS COULD LINGER, THOUGH, AND MAKE IT A LITTLE
MORE DIFFICULT FOR THE NW TO GET TO THE MINS THEY HIT BACK IN
DEC. THERE'S ALWAYS TOMORROW FOR DREAMS TO COME TRUE, OR IN THIS
CASE, TUESDAY MORNING WHEN NEARLY EVERYONE IN CENTRAL PA WILL BE
BELOW ZERO, AND SOME NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS WILL BE FOUND IN
THE N AND LAURELS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS CONTINUE. PRODUCTS UPDATED TO ADJUST
TIMING AND AREA OF CONCERN.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, I DID TUESDAY ONWARD, SO NOT A LOT
OF CHANGE.
THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE LONG DURATION COLD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF COLD
AIR WILL CONTINUE, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF CENTRAL PA, BEFORE RIDGING NORTHWARD BY THURSDAY.
FOR CENTRAL PA, HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE-WED WILL RUN 20-30 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE. CONSIDERING THAT LATE JANUARY IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
THE COLDEST TIME OF THE YEAR, THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC
OUTBREAK.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH COULD BRUSH
SOUTHEASTERN PA WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR A VERY BRIEF TIME
LATER ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL COAT THE GULF COAST STATES
WITH SNOW AND ICE BEFORE IT LIFTS TOWARD US. NO WARM PLACE TO
GO FOR A WINTER BREAK FOR A BIT. 12Z EC HINTED YESTERDAY THAT
THE PRIMARY JET STREAM MIGHT LIFT MORE TO THE NORTH AND BECOME
MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE MONTH, BUT NOT REALLY A CLEAR CUT
SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS.
THUS AFTER SEVERAL VERY COLD DAYS, WE WILL HAVE TO TAKE WHAT
MOTHER NATURES PROVIDES, A BRIEF MODERATING TREND FOR LATE
WEEK. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF WEATHER AFTER TODAY AND
MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT 00Z, PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH LOCALIZED IFR VSBYS IN LINGERING LIGHT SNOW.
THE STEADY SNOW WILL PULL EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING,
ALTHOUGH LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT. AS THE STEADY SNOW EXITS THE
REGION, CONDS WILL GRADUALLY RISE FROM MVFR TO VFR OVER THE
CENTRAL MTNS (AOO/UNV) AND THE SUSQ VALLEY (IPT/MDT/LNS), WHILE
MVFR TO BORDERLINE IFR CONDS CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS (BFD/JST). A NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZE ~10 KTS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY, WITH A NORTHWESTERLY WIND
BECOMING RATHER GUSTY (15-25 KTS). THE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN MVFR CONDS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY -SHSN ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGHLANDS (60-80% PROB), WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-TUES NIGHT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W PA,
BRINGING LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS. OTHERWISE, VERY COLD AREAWIDE.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED; CONTINUED VERY COLD.
THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED; BECOMING A BIT MILDER.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY
FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-037-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ019-024>028-034-035-042-045-046-049>052.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY
FOR PAZ019-025>028-034-035-045-046-049>053-058.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY
FOR PAZ024-033.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ033.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ036-
053-056>059-063>066.
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/EVANEGO
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