407
FXUS61 KCTP 200317
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1017 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
* LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW FOR THE LAURELS OVERNIGHT
* ARCTIC BLAST DELIVERS BITTER TO EXTREME COLD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY
* DEEP FREEZE ENDS LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING
CLOSER TO THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE FOR LATE JANUARY BY NEXT
WEEKEND
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/
FLURRIES ARE ALL THAT ARE LEFT OVER MOST OF THE CWA. WENT AHEAD
AND DROPPED THE ADVYS AND WARNINGS FOR 90PCT OF THE AREA.
HOLDING ONTO THE ADVY FOR CAMBRIA CO THRU THE MORNING (ALONG
WITH THE PREVIOUSLY-EXTENDED WARNING IN SOMERSET.
PREV...
STICKING A FORK IN THE SNOW. LATEST OBS AND RADAR LOOP SHOWING A
RAPID DECREASE IN SNOW INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. ONLY PLACE TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO FOR THE NEXT 12
HRS IS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. LONG BAND OFF LE IS HEADED RIGHT
INTO SOMERSET COUNTY. PROGS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SIMILAR BANDS
THRU THE NIGHT. HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM WARNING THERE
THRU MID-MORNING. MAY BREAK CAMBRIA OFF FROM THE GOING ADVY TO
ALSO CONTINUE IT THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. BUT, THE MAJORITY OF
MESO MODELS KEEP THE BEST SNOW TO THE S OF JST. ELSEWHERE, LESS
THAN AN INCH OF ACCUM SHOULD HAPPEN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO LET THE BULK OF THE REMAINING ADVY AND ALL OF
THE WARNING FOR THE SE GO AT IT'S NATURAL 03Z EXP TIME. SOME LES
SHOULD SNEAK INTO WARREN CO, AND NRN MCKEAN CO, BUT ACCUMS
SHOULD BE LIGHT (1-3" AT MOST). TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK, AND WIND
TICKS UPWARD LATER TONIGHT. THESE ARE ALL GOOD SIGNS FOR THE
COLD WX ADVY TO START LATER TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ADDED SCHUYLKILL CO TO THE COLD WEATHER ADVY FOR MON NIGHT INTO
WED AM PERIOD IN COLLABORATION WITH PHI.
FORECAST IS STILL AS COLD AS IT WAS EARLIER. NO CHANGES THERE.
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC BEFORE BUILDING
INTO PA. WIND IS GOING TO KNOCK THE WIND CHILLS DOWN WELL
BELOW ZERO IN THE NW HALF OF THE CWA (ALLEGHENIES AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS) BY MORNING, WITH MANY PLACES BETWEEN -5 AND -10F
THRU THE DAY. SO, STARTING THE COLD WX ADVYS IN THE MORNING AND
CARRYING THEM THRU THE DAY IS A GOOD STRATEGY. MAX TEMPS 10-20F
WILL EASILY BE THE COLDEST OF THE YEAR (BFD COLDEST ONLY 17F
THUS FAR - AND THEY SHOULD ONLY GET TO 10F MONDAY.)
LES SHOULD STAY CLOSE TO THE LAKE AND MOSTLY N OF PA. STILL HAVE
SOME MINOR ACCUMS THERE, BUT WE SHOULD STILL BE OK WITHOUT AN
ADVY IS THE FAR NW.
SIMILAR STORY FOR MON NIGHT, WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST READINGS
OF THE SEASON (BFD DID GET TO -2F JUST BEFORE CHRISTMAS). BUT,
MOST OF PA HASN'T SEEN NEGATIVE F TEMPS FOR MUCH LONGER. ANY
REMAINING LES MON AFTN SHOULD LIFT N AND OUT OF THE CWA IN THE
EARLY EVENING. CLOUDS COULD LINGER, THOUGH, AND MAKE IT A LITTLE
MORE DIFFICULT FOR THE NW TO GET TO THE MINS THEY HIT BACK IN
DEC. THERE'S ALWAYS TOMORROW FOR DREAMS TO COME TRUE, OR IN THIS
CASE, TUESDAY MORNING WHEN NEARLY EVERYONE IN CENTRAL PA WILL BE
BELOW ZERO, AND SOME NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS WILL BE FOUND IN
THE N AND LAURELS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN WITH THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE SEASON
THUS FAR WED MORNING, AND HIGHS WED AFTN WILL ONCE AGAIN RUN
20-30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JANUARY.
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, AND WE MAY FINALLY SEE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE
BY SUNDAY.
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COULD REINVIGORATE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN PA ON FRIDAY, WITH THE NEXT WAVE BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS (PERHAPS MIXED WITH RAIN SOUTH) BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT 03Z, CONDS HAVE IMPROVED TO BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR AT THE
AIRFIELDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS (AOO/UNV) AND THE SUSQ VALLEY
(IPT/MDT/LNS) AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE OVERNIGHT.
BFD HAS BRIEFLY BECOME VFR, BUT EXPECT THEM TO DROP BACK TO
MVFR (AND POSSIBLY IFR) IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND REMAIN THERE
OVERNIGHT IN OCCASIONAL -SHSN. JST CONTINUES TO SEE IFR CONDS,
AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THERE OVERNIGHT IN OCCASIONAL -SHSN AS
WELL. A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE ~10 KTS COULD OCCASIONALLY GUST
15-20 KTS OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY, WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WIND
BECOMING A BIT GUSTIER (20-25 KTS). THE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN MVFR CONDS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY -SHSN ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGHLANDS (60-80% PROB), WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-TUES NIGHT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W PA,
BRINGING LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS. OTHERWISE, VERY COLD AREAWIDE.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED; CONTINUED VERY COLD.
THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED; BECOMING A BIT MILDER.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY
FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-037-041-042.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY
FOR PAZ019-025>028-034-035-045-046-049>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ024.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY
FOR PAZ024-033.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ033.
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN/EVANEGO
AVIATION...EVANEGO
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