015
FXUS61 KCTP 200606
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
106 AM EST MON JAN 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
* LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW FOR THE LAURELS OVERNIGHT
* ARCTIC BLAST DELIVERS BITTER TO EXTREME COLD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY
* DEEP FREEZE ENDS LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING
CLOSER TO THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE FOR LATE JANUARY BY NEXT
WEEKEND
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/
SNOW IS ALL BUT GONE FROM THE BULK OF THE CWA. DECENT LAKE BANDD
POINTING INTO SOMERSET CO, AND MINOR FLURRIES IN THE FAR NW AND
UP AT THE RADAR SITE. EXPECT TO SEE NO MORE ACCUMS OUTSIDE OF
WARREN, CAMBRIA & SOMERSET COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. ALREADY DOWN TO
12F AT BFD, 5F COLDER THAN THEIR COLDEST TEMP THUS FAR THIS
SEASON. TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK, AND WIND TICKS UPWARD. THESE ARE
ALL GOOD SIGNS FOR THE COLD WX ADVY TO START BEFORE MORNING.
SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ADDED SCHUYLKILL CO TO THE COLD WEATHER ADVY FOR MON NIGHT INTO
WED AM PERIOD IN COLLABORATION WITH PHI.
FORECAST IS STILL AS COLD AS IT WAS EARLIER. NO CHANGES THERE.
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC BEFORE BUILDING
INTO PA. WIND IS GOING TO KNOCK THE WIND CHILLS DOWN WELL
BELOW ZERO IN THE NW HALF OF THE CWA (ALLEGHENIES AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS) BY MORNING, WITH MANY PLACES BETWEEN -5 AND -10F
THRU THE DAY. SO, STARTING THE COLD WX ADVYS IN THE MORNING AND
CARRYING THEM THRU THE DAY IS A GOOD STRATEGY. MAX TEMPS 10-20F
WILL EASILY BE THE COLDEST OF THE YEAR (BFD COLDEST ONLY 17F
THUS FAR - AND THEY SHOULD ONLY GET TO 10F MONDAY.)
LES SHOULD STAY CLOSE TO THE LAKE AND MOSTLY N OF PA. STILL HAVE
SOME MINOR ACCUMS THERE, BUT WE SHOULD STILL BE OK WITHOUT AN
ADVY IS THE FAR NW.
SIMILAR STORY FOR MON NIGHT, WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST READINGS
OF THE SEASON (BFD DID GET TO -2F JUST BEFORE CHRISTMAS). BUT,
MOST OF PA HASN'T SEEN NEGATIVE F TEMPS FOR MUCH LONGER. ANY
REMAINING LES MON AFTN SHOULD LIFT N AND OUT OF THE CWA IN THE
EARLY EVENING. CLOUDS COULD LINGER, THOUGH, AND MAKE IT A LITTLE
MORE DIFFICULT FOR THE NW TO GET TO THE MINS THEY HIT BACK IN
DEC. THERE'S ALWAYS TOMORROW FOR DREAMS TO COME TRUE, OR IN THIS
CASE, TUESDAY MORNING WHEN NEARLY EVERYONE IN CENTRAL PA WILL BE
BELOW ZERO, AND SOME NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS WILL BE FOUND IN
THE N AND LAURELS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN WITH THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE SEASON
THUS FAR WED MORNING, AND HIGHS WED AFTN WILL ONCE AGAIN RUN
20-30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JANUARY.
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, AND WE MAY FINALLY SEE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE
BY SUNDAY.
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COULD REINVIGORATE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN PA ON FRIDAY, WITH THE NEXT WAVE BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS (PERHAPS MIXED WITH RAIN SOUTH) BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT BFD AND JST
AS OF 06Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE AT JST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT,
BUT MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SNOW SHOWERS DECREASING NEAR
BFD WITH CONDITIONS ACTUALLY RISING TO VFR FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS THIS MORNING. FARTHER TO THE EAST, CEILINGS AT AOO WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO JUMP BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ALSO CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT UNV AND IPT AS WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER FOR THOSE TWO SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ELSEWHERE.
MONDAY WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY, WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WIND
BECOMING A BIT GUSTIER (20-25 KTS). THE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN MVFR CONDS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY -SHSN ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGHLANDS (60-80% PROB), WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-TUES NIGHT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W PA,
BRINGING LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS. OTHERWISE, VERY COLD AREAWIDE.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED; CONTINUED VERY COLD.
THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED; BECOMING A BIT MILDER.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-037-041-042.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-034-035-045-046-049>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ024.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ024-
033.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-033.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ033.
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN/EVANEGO
AVIATION...EVANEGO/BAUCO
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