569
FXUS61 KCTP 201000
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
500 AM EST MON JAN 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
* SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATE IN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS TODAY
* ARCTIC BLAST DELIVERS FRIGID/EXTREME COLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY
* DEEP FREEZE ENDS LATE WEEK WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
FORECAST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
PERSISTENT LAKE STREAMER BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW TO
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING. MRMS RADAR TRENDS FAVOR THE
BULK OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF
US-22 AND ALONG THE WEST-FACING SLOPES AND SUMMITS ON LAUREL MTN
(SOMERSET/WESTMORELAND BORDER). FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW FALLING
INVERSION HEIGHTS INTO MIDDAY WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDING TO
THE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS PATTERN FAVORS
A GRADUAL DIMINISHING/ENDING TO THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE LAURELS, BUT HIRES MODEL DATA DOES SHOW SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS REDEVELOPING OVER THE NW ALLEGHENIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9AM.
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS HAS ALLOWED FOR
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL PA.
WITH HELP FROM FRESH SNOW COVER, KSEG AND KTHV AIR TEMPS HAVE
PLUMMETED TO -2F AND -1F AS OF 09Z!
FRIGID ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY IN THE 10-20F RANGE ARE 15 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE FOR LATE JANUARY. THE DEPARTURES
ARE EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE WHEN YOU PUT INTO PERSPECTIVE THAT THIS
IS TYPICALLY THE COLDEST TIME OF THE YEAR! WE EXPANDED THE COLD
WEATHER ADVY TO COVER THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT WITH MINIMUM WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN 5 AND 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
BITTER TO EXTREME COLD CONDITIONS LAST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH COLD
WX ADVISORY AND EXTREME COLD WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TUESDAY NIGHT
LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 0F TO -15F AND
WIND CHILLS FROM 10 TO 25 BELOW ZERO.
REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD GENERATE
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ON TUESDAY OVER THE ALLEGHENIES AND
WE KEEN TO RAISE POPS OVER THE BONE DRY NBM. SNSQ PARAMETER
SUGGEST SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER FAR WESTERN PA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE THE LAST VERY COLD AND FRIGID NIGHT
BEFORE TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE INTO LATE WEEK.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, AND WE MAY FINALLY SEE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE
BY SUNDAY.
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COULD REINVIGORATE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN PA ON FRIDAY, WITH THE NEXT WAVE BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS (PERHAPS MIXED WITH RAIN SOUTH) BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT BFD AND JST
AS OF 06Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE AT JST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT,
BUT MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SNOW SHOWERS DECREASING NEAR
BFD WITH CONDITIONS ACTUALLY RISING TO VFR FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS THIS MORNING. FARTHER TO THE EAST, CEILINGS AT AOO WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO JUMP BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ALSO CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT UNV AND IPT AS WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER FOR THOSE TWO SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ELSEWHERE.
MONDAY WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY, WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WIND
BECOMING A BIT GUSTIER (20-25 KTS). THE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN MVFR CONDS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY -SHSN ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGHLANDS (60-80% PROB), WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-TUES NIGHT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W PA,
BRINGING LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS. OTHERWISE, VERY COLD AREAWIDE.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED; CONTINUED VERY COLD.
THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED; BECOMING A BIT MILDER.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-037-041-042.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ024.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ024-
033.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-033.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ033.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...MARTIN/EVANEGO
AVIATION...EVANEGO/BAUCO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page