915
FXUS61 KCTP 201821
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
121 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
* FRIGID/EXTREME COLD WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY
* MODERATING, BUT SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES, ARE EXPECTED
LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
115 PM UPDATE... THIS AFTERNOON, REGIONAL SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY DEPICT THIN CLOUD STREAMERS AND SOME FLURRIES FROM LAKE
ERIE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COMMONWEALTH, WITH SOME
FLURRIES ALSO STILL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS.
ELSEWHERE, PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL. IN GENERAL, THE
ABOVE PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST INTO TONIGHT, WITH A GENERAL
REDUCTION/NORTHWARD DRIFT IN CLOUD BANDS AND FLURRIES.
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BONE CHILLING COLD, AS EXPECTED
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED THIS AFTERNOON TO REACH 20
DEGREES IN THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN/ALLEGHENIES. AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT, READINGS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT BEFORE
DAYBREAK BELOW ZERO OVER THE ALLEGHENIES, THE NORTHERN TIER, AND
ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. OTHER AREAS WILL DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. ALTHOUGH BRISK WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT, WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE -5 TO
-15 RANGE ARE ANTICIPATED, WITH LOCALLY DOWN TO -20 OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THUS, EXISTING EXTREME COLD WARNINGS (LAURELS)
AND EXTREME COLD ADVISORIES (ELSEWHERE) WILL STAY IN EFFECT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
130 PM UPDATE... CONTINUED VERY COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK
WILL BE THE MAIN STORY, WITH EXTREME COLD ADVISORIES IN TACT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWER-LEVEL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BOTTOM OUT
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, BEFORE STARTING TO
REBOUND A BIT. THE COLDEST APPARENT TEMPERATURES (AS COLD AS
AROUND -20) WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS.
THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVER THE ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING, BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL, IF
ANY.
CONDITIONS LOOK DRY ON WEDNESDAY, AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK INTO
THE SOUTHWEST, AHEAD OF A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS ARE STILL ONLY PROJECTED TO BE IN THE
TEENS FOR MOST, AND PERHAPS ONLY NEAR 10 DEGREES IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MILDER, AS THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS STARTS TO LIFT NORTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE 20S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, AND WE MAY FINALLY SEE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE
BY SUNDAY.
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COULD REINVIGORATE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN PA ON FRIDAY, WITH THE NEXT WAVE BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS (PERHAPS MIXED WITH RAIN SOUTH) BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
18Z UPDATE... ALTHOUGH PERIODIC MVFR-FUEL ALTERNATE RESTRICTIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES (KBFD AND
KJST TERMINAL SITES) IN BLOWING SNOW AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (80-90%) THAT
VFR/UNRESTRICTED WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIR WILL BE COLD, IT IS ALSO FAIRLY DRY,
AND THAT DRY AIR IS WHAT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
LARGELY IN PLACE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
PA (GUSTS INTO THE 25-30 KT RANGE), AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
OVER THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY (KMDT AND KLNS TERMINAL
SITES). WINDS SHOULD BECOME LESS GUSTY LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING, AND ALSO BACK INTO A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT...PRIMARILY VFR ANTICIPATED.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-037-041-042.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ024-
033.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-033.
SYNOPSIS...JUREWICZ
NEAR TERM...JUREWICZ
SHORT TERM...JUREWICZ
LONG TERM...MARTIN/EVANEGO
AVIATION...JUREWICZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page