088  
FXUS61 KCTP 201924  
AFDCTP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA  
224 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
* FRIGID/EXTREME COLD WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP THE COMMONWEALTH  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
* MODERATING, BUT SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES, ARE EXPECTED  
LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
115 PM UPDATE... THIS AFTERNOON, REGIONAL SATELLITE AND RADAR  
IMAGERY DEPICT THIN CLOUD STREAMERS AND SOME FLURRIES FROM LAKE  
ERIE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COMMONWEALTH, WITH SOME  
FLURRIES ALSO STILL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS.  
ELSEWHERE, PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL. IN GENERAL, THE  
ABOVE PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST INTO TONIGHT, WITH A GENERAL  
REDUCTION/NORTHWARD DRIFT IN CLOUD BANDS AND FLURRIES.  
 
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BONE CHILLING COLD, AS EXPECTED  
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED THIS AFTERNOON TO REACH 20  
DEGREES IN THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE  
DIGITS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN/ALLEGHENIES. AS COLD ADVECTION  
CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT, READINGS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT BEFORE  
DAYBREAK BELOW ZERO OVER THE ALLEGHENIES, THE NORTHERN TIER, AND  
ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. OTHER AREAS WILL DROP  
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. ALTHOUGH BRISK WINDS WILL GRADUALLY  
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT, WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE -5 TO  
-15 RANGE ARE ANTICIPATED, WITH LOCALLY DOWN TO -20 OVER THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN. THUS, EXISTING EXTREME COLD WARNINGS (LAURELS)  
AND EXTREME COLD ADVISORIES (ELSEWHERE) WILL STAY IN EFFECT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
130 PM UPDATE... CONTINUED VERY COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK  
WILL BE THE MAIN STORY, WITH EXTREME COLD ADVISORIES AND  
WARNINGS IN TACT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWER-LEVEL TEMPERATURES  
APPEAR TO BOTTOM OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY,  
BEFORE STARTING TO REBOUND A BIT. THE COLDEST APPARENT  
TEMPERATURES (AS COLD AS AROUND -20) WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT  
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE  
ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS.  
 
THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW  
SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVER THE ALLEGHENIES/LAURELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON  
INTO THE EARLY EVENING, BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL, IF  
ANY.  
 
CONDITIONS LOOK DRY ON WEDNESDAY, AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK INTO  
THE SOUTHWEST, AHEAD OF A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OVER THE  
UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS ARE STILL ONLY PROJECTED TO BE IN THE  
TEENS FOR MOST, AND PERHAPS ONLY NEAR 10 DEGREES IN THE  
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MILDER, AS THE  
ARCTIC AIR MASS STARTS TO LIFT NORTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH, WITH  
AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE 20S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THIS SECTION OF THE FCST.  
 
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE  
WEEKEND, AS TEMPERATURES TREND CLOSER TO AVERAGE LATE IN THE  
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, BUT  
WEAK SYSTEMS MAY SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AT TIMES, SO I DID  
ADJUST POPS UP A BIT FROM THE NBM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON  
FRIDAY.  
 
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE MAY BRING MORE IN THE WAY OF A GENERAL  
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND, BUT NOT LARGE  
STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
18Z UPDATE... ALTHOUGH PERIODIC MVFR-FUEL ALTERNATE RESTRICTIONS  
CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES (KBFD AND  
KJST TERMINAL SITES) IN BLOWING SNOW AND LIGHT SNOW  
SHOWERS/FLURRIES, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (80-90%) THAT  
VFR/UNRESTRICTED WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH MIDDAY  
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIR WILL BE COLD, IT IS ALSO FAIRLY DRY,  
AND THAT DRY AIR IS WHAT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS  
LARGELY IN PLACE.  
 
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL  
PA (GUSTS INTO THE 25-30 KT RANGE), AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING  
OVER THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY (KMDT AND KLNS TERMINAL  
SITES). WINDS SHOULD BECOME LESS GUSTY LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY  
MORNING, AND ALSO BACK INTO A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WED-SAT...PRIMARILY VFR ANTICIPATED.  
 

 
   
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004>006-  
010>012-017-018-037-041-042.  
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST  
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-  
063>066.  
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ024-  
033.  
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST  
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ024-033.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...JUREWICZ  
NEAR TERM...JUREWICZ  
SHORT TERM...JUREWICZ  
LONG TERM...MARTIN  
AVIATION...JUREWICZ  
 
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